Jack Layton, leader of the New Democrats, was back in Gatineau over the weekend to support NDP candidate Françoise Boivin. He even did some door-to-door with her.

The NDP believes that two of the three ridings in Gatineau are within their reach: Gatineau itself and Hull-Aylmer. Pontiac remains a Conservative/Bloc battle.

The New Democrats aren’t wrong to think they have a chance, both the Liberals and the Bloc, the previous occupants of these seats, are polling weakly and the NDP is polling strongly. The NDP had over 8,000 votes in Hull-Aylmer last time around (their best performance in the province), and their polling increase could give them up to 14,000 votes in the riding – within range of Marcel Proulx. In Gatineau, the NDP result wasn’t as good with only 5,300 votes, but Boivin ran as a Liberal that time around and garnered almost 17,000 votes, about 4,000 behind Bloc MP Richard Nadeau. If Boivin can hold on to a portion of her former Liberal voters and benefit from the increase in popularity of the NDP, she could put some pressure on Nadeau. On the other hand, the vote split will probably just help the Bloc MP.

Aside from Outremont, where Thomas Mulcair holds the seat, the NDP considers the city of Gatineau as their next-best-chance for electing a Quebecois MP. The party straddles a good portion of the left-wing clientele of the Bloc and the Liberals, so it makes some sense.

But the Bloc Québécois is no paper tiger. The Bloc has a history in the Outaouais region with Nadeau and former victories in Pontiac, and they have a good base of supporters. Nadeau had more than 21,000 votes and Raphaël Déry in Hull-Aylmer has almost 16,000 supporters of the party in 2006 to draw from. If the NDP manages to claw its way to second or even first in either of these two ridings, they will do so with a vast majority coming from new voters. It isn’t easy to convince voters to switch allegiance, especially when that allegiance is owed to a party like the Bloc who has a lofty goal. Sovereigntists have a sense of duty towards the Bloc and the PQ, and they aren’t easily swayed. And, as always, support for parties like the NDP and Greens fritters away at the ballot box. People talk big when polled on the phone, but the NDP vote is one of the most fragile.

In the end, voters in the Outaouais will remember that the Bloc provides the best chance for strong opposition. Proulx has been a non-entity in the House of Commons, and the NDP is a third-tier party with marginal influence on government policy. Harper has no illusions of taking votes from the NDP. The Bloc, on the other hand, has a large influence on the Conservatives, who try to steal as many votes from them as possible. The Bloc will speak up for the interests of Gatineau more than the NDP ever could, because the NDP is dependent on voters in Toronto, Halifax, and British Columbia – not those on Boulevard Maloney. And, most of all, the Bloc frightens the other parties into action. If the Bloc managed to hold two seats in the Outaouais, within eyesight of Parliament Hill, it will reverberate louder than any little aberration represented by an NDP surprise.

Richard Nadeau has been a vocal spokesman for the Outaouais region, far more than a Lawrence Cannon or Marcel Proulx. And with Raphaël Déry at his side, Gatineau would have a stronger voice than it has had for years.

 Cross-posted on http://sovereigntyenanglais.blogspot.com