SEAT PROJECTIONS & RIDING DISCUSSION -- SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY OR RIDING

Nova Scotians Love Their Incumbents…

Author: Dustin Fox (Liberal)

14 Sep

In 2006, 11 incumbents ran for their seats in Nova Scotia and all 11 won (with one close race in West Nova). Even in 2004, only one seat had a retiring incumbent (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour) and another had a newly minted Liberal (Kings-Hants). This year is a bit more exciting in Canada’s Ocean Playground. While 10 incumbents are running (Alexa McDonough in Halifax being the only exception), we have Tory-turned-Independent Bill Casey squaring off against his own party (and apparently money he helped fundraise) in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodobit Valley and Green Party Leader Elisabeth May taking on Peter Mackay in Central Nova. We also have two fairly competitive races within incumbent held ridings. West Nova being held by Liberal Robert Thibault was close last time and should be a nail biter again this time around. As well, South Shore-St. Margaret’s, with Tory incumbent Gerald Keddy should be interesting given the backlash from the Atlantic Accord fiasco. This ridings is typically a 3 way race, so if either the NDP or Liberal can rally the vote here, it could be a pick-up. The NDP candidate is the same as last time, but the Liberal is popular chiropractor Dr. Bill Smith who has been campaigning hard for almost a year and a half. Should be interesting. All in all here are my realistic best/worst case scenarios for each party:

Liberal: (Currently hold 6 of 11) Best -> 8 of 11 (Pickup South Shore-St. Margaret’s and Halifax) Worst -> 5 of 11 (Lose West Nova)
Conservative: (Currently hold 2 of 11)Best -> 3 of 11 (Pickup West Nova) Worst -> 0 of 11 (Lose South Shore-St. Margaret’s and Central Nova)
NDP: (Currently hold 2 of 11) Best -> 3 of 11 (Pickup South Shore-St. Margaret’s) Worst -> 1 of 11 (Lose Halifax)
Greens: (Currently hold 0 of 11) Best -> 1 of 11 (Pickup Central Nova)Worst -> Status Quo
Independent: (Currently hold 1 of 11) Best/Worst -> Status Quo (it’s just gonna happen)

All in all, 6 safe seats (5 Liberal, 1 NDP) with 5 seats that “could” change, but knowing Nova Scotians, look for a similar result to the status quo on election night.

Filed under: Atlantic Canada, Dustin Fox (Liberal), Liberal, Local Campaigns, Nova Scotia

One Response for "Nova Scotians Love Their Incumbents…"

Lloyd September 14th, 2008 at 5:59 pm 1
The Sydney -Vicoria seat may end up in play. It is currently held by Mark Eyking but THe is a really strong conservative Candidate running (Kristen Rudderham). She has a lot of support in rural Cape Breton (outside of millville) and on the Northside. It is possible the that the NDP and Conservatives could take enough seats away from the Liberals for one of them to win. It is going to be a battle on the ground, the Liberal Carbon tax and the idea of ” anyone but Dion as PM” isn’t going to help Eyking. It is in the air that a lot of people want change in this area too because Eykig has been an MP since 2000 and he is still a relatively unkown backencher, I know I feel underrepresented, I really think is is going to be an interested race s I would not consider this a Liberal Victory just yet. I am usually a Liberal Supporter but definitely will not be this time around.

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