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Le Droit Poll for Gatineau – and what it means for Hull-Aylmer

Author: Éric Grenier (Bloc Québécois)

29 Sep

Today, a poll from CROP-Le Droit-Gesca was released in the Ottawa-Gatineau newspaper Le Droit. It covered the local election in Gatineau. The results:

Richard Nadeau – Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois – 32% (-7 from 2006 election)
Denis TassÃ© – Conservatives – 22% (+5)
FranÃ§oise Boivin – New Democrats – 21% (+11)
Michel Simard – Liberals – 20% (-11)

These polling numbers are interesting, and there is a lot to learn from for Hull-Aylmer. The Bloc support is still relatively solid and its decrease is more or less proportional to the Bloc’s national numbers. It is worth noting, however, that Nadeau is the incumbent. In a disputed riding, being the incumbent is difficult for Bloc MPs because of their role as an opposition party. In Hull-Aylmer, RaphaÃ«l DÃ©ry is not the incumbent and so there isn’t any sort of grudge in terms of what the Bloc has or hasn’t done for Hull-Aylmer.

The Conservatives have shown moderate growth, but in this urban riding it isn’t enough, and we don’t need to worry about them in Hull-Aylmer.

The NDP shows real growth potential, and has improved its position in Gatineau by about the same proportion as the NDP in Quebec as a whole. However, Gatineau is a special case. Boivin used to be a Liberal MP for the riding, and so in addition to gaining votes because of the NDP’s strong performance in the province, she is stealing votes from the Liberals because of her personal history. In Hull-Aylmer, this tells me that growth is possible, but if the NDP follows national trends in Gatineau with a former Liberal MP, Pierre Ducasse can’t hope for that sort of vote-switching in Hull-Aylmer. He has only the boost of the national campaign to draw from.

Lastly, and simply, the Liberals are in free fall. Marcel Proulx will feel the pinch as well.

Cross posted to my blog Sovereignty en Anglais.

Filed under: Battleground Ridings, Bloc Québécois, Conservative, Lanaudière / Laurentides / Outaouais, Liberal, Local Campaigns, NDP, Polling, Québec, Éric Grenier (Bloc Québécois)

One Response for "Le Droit Poll for Gatineau – and what it means for Hull-Aylmer"

Maxime Rainville (Conservative) September 29th, 2008 at 1:43 pm 1
I would dispute the idea that being an incumbent is such a bad thing, even for the Bloc. In fact, I would say that incumbents begin with an head start.

They have great name recognition, they’re better acquainted with the issues, they had the time to set up an organization.

MPs are a full time politician … the other guys are usually the political equivalent of weekend warriors.

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