A close race is anticipated between the Bloc Québécois and the Conservatives in my riding of Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia, a large riding stretching across the Gaspésie and the Bas-St-Laurent regions.

Jean-Yves Roy (BQ) has to be the favourite at the start line since he is seeking a 4th consecutive mandate. Targeting the problems of the elderly (inflation, services) and the seasonal workers (employment insurane), he may be hitting the right nails in an area that is rapidly aging and where workers are worried about jobs in the forest industry.

Jérôme Landry (CP) has yet to announce his priorities for the riding, but is underlining the fact that we need a voice that holds real power. An argument that is generally well received in many gouvernent-dependant regions like ours. At 29% in 2006, compared with 46% for the Bloc, the Conservatives only need a small boost to grab this seat. The strong lead they have country-wise could convine just enough voters to give them a chance here.

 The Liberals looked pretty much dead a few weeks ago: without a candidate while trying to resuscitate from a brutal 13% result in 2006. Things have changed now with the nomination of Nancy Charest (LPC), a popular provincial liberal deputee who got defeated by only a handfull of votes in the last provincial election. She still has a very good reputation for what she accomplished in the area with the provincial government and people could definitely want to bring her back at the federal level. The low 2006 score and the low national scores in the early surveys of this campaign however will likely discourage potential liberal supporters. Nancy Charest is a great candidate that is focusing on economy but the hill ahead of her is just too steep to be climbed in 30 days… 

Other parties unfortunately don’t stand a chance in this riding. No other party will even be close to the 10% mark according to me. I’ll comment later the situation in other Gaspésie and Bas-St-Laurent ridings. Feel free to discuss any of these areas with me in French or English.