The remaining Saskatchewan seats (at least those in the south) should be much easier to make predictions on, for those of you not familiar with these ridings I think it will become quite clear as to why pretty quickly. So let’s continue:

CYPRESS HILLS – GRASSLANDS
Incumbent: David Anderson (CON)
Last Election: 66.5/16.8/12.9/3.8
2008 Candidates:
CON – David Anderson
NDP – Scott Wilson
LIB – Duane Filson
GPC – Bill Clary
Analysis: Over the past three elections the Conservative/Alliance candidate has not garnered less than 60% of the popular vote. Need I say much more?

Prediction: A quick and easy decision. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.

SOURIS – MOOSE MOUNTAIN
Incumbent: Ed Komarnicki (CON)
Last Election: 62.8/14.0/18.5/4.7
2008 Candidates:
CON – Ed Komarnicki
NDP – Raquel Fletcher
LIB – Marlin Belt
GPC – Bob Deptuck
Analysis: Except for small challenge from Independent candidate Grant Devine in 2004 (yes that guy), the Conservative/Alliance parties have had over 60% of the popular vote in this riding.

Prediction: Another quick and easy decision. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.

YORKTON – MELVILLE
Incumbent: Garry Breitkreuz (CON)
Last Election: 63.5/18.9/14.0/2.8
2008 Candidates:
CON – Garry Breitkreuz
NDP – Doug Ottenbreit
LIB – Bryan Bell
GPC – Jen Antony
Analysis: Much like the other 2 southern ridings the Conservative/Alliance vote percentage hasn’t dipped below 60% since the 2000 election.

Prediction: Yet another quick and easy decision. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.

BATTLEFORDS – LLOYDMINSTER
Incumbent: Gerry Ritz (CON)
Last Election: 54.0/15.8/14.4/2.1
2008 Candidates:
CON – Gerry Ritz
NDP – Bob Woloshyn
LIB – Gregory Nyholt
GPC – Norbert Kratchmer
Analysis: Home of the gruff and extremely partisan Minister of Agriculture. The Conservative/Alliance vote percentage has decreased over 6% between 2000 and 2006; however, that decrease was from 60% to 54%. Both the NDP and Liberals are running candidates who are strong advocates in their communities . It will take a foundational shift in support for Gerry Ritz to be upset here despite current opposition efforts to oust him from his post over his handling of the Maple Leaf tainted meat affair. The recent “gaffe” or “scandal” surrounding his insensitive comments won’t hurt his chances either.

Prediction: Unless Ritz’s unrelenting partisanship style and/or the tainted meat affair can stick and stick big time this one will not change hands. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.

PRINCE ALBERT
Incumbent: Brian Fitzpatrick (CON)
Last Election: 54.4/23.8/19.4/2.3
2008 Candidates:
CON – Randy Hoback
NDP – Val Mushinski
LIB – Lou Doderai
GPC – Amanda Symtaniuk
Analysis: The Conservative/Alliance popular vote percentage increased by 7% between 2004 and 2006, leaching from both the Liberals and the NDP. However, with the incumbent MP not re-upping it leaves a small opening for the challengers to effect change. The NDP candidate has been campaigning since early 2007 and will benefit from the lack of a Liberal presence to date and the continued backslide in Liberal support across the province. However, slightly under 10,000 votes separate the Conservatives and NDP, which presents a lofty mountain to climb come EDay.

Prediction: It will take a monumental shift in public opinion for this riding to reject the new Conservative candidate, expect a good challenge from the NDP regardless. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.

DESNETHE – MISSINIPPI – CHURCHILL RIVER
Incumbent: Rob Clarke (CON)
Last Election: 47.9/17.6/31.5/3.3
2008 Candidates:
CON – Rob Clarke
NDP – Brian Morin
LIB – David Orchard
GPC – George Morin
Analysis: Historically this seat has bounced back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives. The Conservatives scored a fairly significant blow to the Liberals in the recent by-election that saw Provincial NDP turned Liberal candidate Joan Beatty loosing a seat for the Opposition. This time around David Orchard has won a closely contested nomination battle and will renew the election battle with Clarke and two-time NDP candidate Brian Morin. The Conservative strength lies in the southern most communities of this riding. However, the organizational capabilities of David Orchard and his appeal to voters will be the dark horse in this race. Orchard has been hard at work in DMCR for well over a year. However, another strong showing from the NDP may thwart his hard work. Should Orchard win this riding it could very well start to shift the Liberal landscape in Saskatchewan, not to mention shaking up the Liberal party itself.

Prediction: I am leaning towards the Conservatives holding onto this seat; however, one can’t discount the Orchard factor. Seat TO CLOSE TO CALL.
______________________________________
So there we have it. 14 ridings on the line. My predictions include the following:

Conservatives – 10 seats, 3 to close to call
NDP – 0 seats, 2 to close to call
Liberals – 1 seat, 1 to close to call

I have purposely listed the Green Party vote totals from 2006 but left out their candidates on purpose. (Edit: I’ve added the Green candidates above. -GM). Now I am not trying to slight the GPC but as you can see from the 2006 results (and the lack of nominated candidates at this point in most ridings) they are not really a factor in Saskatchewan. 3.0 to 3.8% could prove significant in some of the to close to call ridings; however, in most cases their are no campaigns physically present and candidates never step foot in the ridings. I do believe that the GPC vote will increase slightly in the urban areas in this election, but not more than 0.5 to 1.0%.
What I think we will see is an erosion in Conservative support in the Regina, Saskatoon, and Northern ridings. Coupled with the apparent Liberal slide in the province, it should lead to an increase in the NDP vote total; however, this increase for the NDP will still have them hard pressed to win even 1 seat. Of course, should the Liberals trot out the “vote Liberal to stop the scary Conservatives” again on the national campaign it could once again prove spoiler here in Saskatchewan, were the Liberals are the 3rd-run party in most ridings, by handing close races to the Conservatives.