For my first DemocraticSpace blog post I figured I would re-post a series I did on my own blog when the election was called last Sunday. This is a three part series dealing with all 14 Saskatchewan ridings. I will give the candidates, the 2006 results, analysis of each riding, and a prediction of the outcome on October 14th. I have updated this version slight as new candidates have been nominated since. I have tried to be as non-partisan and pragmatic as possible. I welcome your feedback/comments/constructive criticisms.

Today I will focus on the 4 Saskatoon area ridings. So let the games begin!:

BLACKSTRAP
Incumbent: Lynne Yelich (CON)
Last Election: 48.0/30.6/16.9/3.3
2008 Candidates:
CON – Lynne Yelich
NDP – Patti Gieni
LIB – Deb Ehmann
Analysis: One of 4 Saskatoon ridings that is split between 1/2 city and 1/2 rural areas. Blackstrap represented the highest vote total of any NDP candidate in 2006, but still put them 17% back of the Conservative incumbent.
Prediction: Unless the Conservatives do something to completely alienate their core rural support Yelich will take this one again. However, expect to see the overall lead diminished somewhat. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.
 
SASKATOON-HUMBOLDT
Incumbent: Brad Trost (CON)
Last Election: 49.1/29.5/16.9/3.7
2008 Candidates:
CON – Brad Trost
NDP – Scott Ruston
LIB – Karen Parhar
Analysis: One of 4 Saskatoon ridings that is split between 1/2 city and 1/2 rural areas. Humboldt was easily carried by Trost in 2006. A large swath of the rural portion of the riding extends into the Sask bible belt, Trost has done well to play up the pro-life side of his platform over the past couple of years. NDP candidate Scott Ruston has been campaigning in the riding since Winter 2007 but faces an uphill climb against the rural Conservative and the Northeast section of Saskatoon that is characterized by high home prices and a trend towards the Conservatives (re: Sask Party) in the last provincial election. The Liberals are also ran’s in this riding and the lack of a “name” candidate to suggests they will coast to their 10-15% of the vote without mounting much of a challenge.
Prediction: Unless the Conservatives do something to completely alienate their core rural support Trost will take this one again. However, expect to see the overall lead diminished somewhat. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.
 
SASKATOON-ROSETOWN-BIGGAR
Incumbent: Carol Skelton (CON)
Last Election: 45.5/39.0/12.1/2.5
2008 Candidates:
CON – Kelly Block
NDP – Nettie Wiebe
LIB – Roy Bluehorn
Analysis:One of 4 Saskatoon ridings that is split between 1/2 city and 1/2 rural areas. This riding represents the best chance for an NDP pick-up in 2008 with Nettie Wiebe re-upping and looking to overcome a 1,900 vote difference. Incumbent Carol Skelton is not running again and Kelly Block will carry the Conservative banner into the election. The nomination of Kelly Block was probably the worst case scenario for the NDP as her credentials and centrist policies will play well to the riding, much like Carol Skelton who took pains to distance herself from the Conservative brand during her time as MP. However, without an incumbent Nettie Wiebe’s presence in the riding over the past 3 years should pay dividends. The Liberals will once again play spoiler in a riding that they have not mounted a serious campaign in for a few election cycles. It will be up to Nettie and her team to woo the 10-15% Liberal voting base in order to overcome the vote deficient.
Prediction: Despite her impressive resume and cross-party support, Kelly Block is a wildcard in this race. The NDP will have to work hard especially to pull out a good portion of the city vote, while the Conservatives cannot be seen resting on their strong rural vote. Seat TO CLOSE TO CALL.
 
SASKATOON-WANUSKEWIN
Incumbent: Maurice Vellcott (CON)
Last Election: 49.4/22.1/24.1/3.6
2008 Candidates:
CON – Maurice Vellcott
NDP – Clint Davidson
LIB – Patricia Zipchen
Analysis:One of 4 Saskatoon ridings that is split between 60% city and 40% rural areas. 2006 likely represents a high water mark for Maurice Vellcott and the Conservatives in this riding. However, as has happened in the past two elections the NDP and Liberals are likely to split the 50-55% of the non-Conservative vote in the riding. In 2006 Wanuskewin was the targeted riding by the Liberals; however, Axworthy was unable to maintain the large gains made in the 2004 election and his departure leaves a large hole for the Liberals in the riding. The NDP is well poised to vault into 2nd place in the riding both due to lack of a “name” Liberal candidate and those unhappy with the Conservatives.
Prediction: Vellcott will have to do or say something extremely stupid to lose this seat, despite his unfortunate comments in the national media over the past 2.5 years. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.