I expect that the race in Etobicoke Lakeshore will capture the interest of the national media as it has in the past two elections.

For the Liberals – the incumbent MP, Michael Ignatieff, runner-up in the most recent Liberal leadership contest. In the 2006 election, there was a number of upset people in the riding due to Mr. Ignatieff being parachuted in over the wishes of the riding assocation. There was also a lot of concern in the riding (and nationally for the leadership convention) about his absence from Canada. My sense is that this animosity has subsided. I don’t get the sense there’s much of a “oust Ignatieff” feeling in the riding. At some level, one might conclude the Liberals should hold this riding.

For the Conservatives – Patrick Boyer. Mr. Boyer was the MP in this riding during the Mulroney years. While I did not live in the riding at the time, people who did says he was quite popular, even as Mr. Mulroney’s approval faded. He was narrowly defeated in the 1993 election. In both the 2004 and 2006 elections, the Conservatives worked hard to try and make this the breakthrough riding in Toronto, yet the Liberals won it fairly easily.

As for the NDP and Green Parties (and other candidates) I don’t expect they will be much of a factor here. The NDP did win here in the Trudeau years and won provincially in the Rae years, but that’s ancient history now. I can’t imagine a scenario that would result in neither Ignatieff or Boyer winning, but….

I know lawn signs are pretty bad indicator, but for those interested, the Liberals are far ahead of Conservatives. I’ve seen nothing from the rest.

Let’s see how this race develops.