Prince Edward-Hastings is a riding that you can drive across in 15 minutes, but takes over two hours to drive from North to South. It runs like a knife from the Bancroft area, down to the southern tip of Prince-Edward County, which juts out into the middle of lake Ontario. The major population centre is Belleville (@ 48 000) and includes Bancroft, Tweed, Madoc, and Picton.

At this time, there are three officially nominated candidates in PEH according to the Elections Canada Website. They are incumbent Tory Daryl Kramp, Liberal challenger Ken Cole, and NDP mainstay Michael McMahon, who’s back in the ring to take another swing.

Liberal Ken Cole has so far run a very aggressive campaign. Even as long as a year ago, he was renting signs in Belleville, to try and get some much needed exposure. Nevertheless, he’s fighting an uphill battle against Tory MP Daryl Kramp who turned the riding Blue in 2004, by eking out a narrow victory against Liberal Bruce Knutson subsequent to Lyle Vanclief’s retirement. He increased his margin of victory substantially against Dr. Robert Vaughan in 2006.

If sign wars are any gauge of what is going on, at this point, at least in urban Belleville, where the Liberals strength traditionally lies, it’s about even between Kramp and Cole, with the odd McMahon sign here and there. However, if past results are any indication, the McMahon signs are plentiful in Bancroft, while Kramp signs dominate elsewhere.

Despite Mr. Cole’s efforts, which might have helped him overcome an incumbent’s advantage under different circumstances, my view is that the disastrous national Liberal campaign being run thus far will negate his best efforts, and this riding will stay blue, and by a healthy margin.

It’s still early days yet, and much can happen. Stay tuned!