In defence of electionprediction:

In 2000, 50920 voted. In 2004, 57631 voted. In 2006, 63431 voted. If we add them together and divide them by 3 we get the average: 57327. We’ll use that number as our predicted number of voters who will be voting on Oct. 14. Although, the number of electors in Peterborough are actually much higher. However, for our purposes, 57327 will suffice.

So far, CTV has polled Ontario Battleground Ridings, (Peterborough is a battleground riding) 16 times since the start of the election. The average of the 16 snapshots for the Conservatives is: 40.44%

40.44% of 57327 is: 23183.

Then we’ll say: +- 1000 for margin of error.

So, we should expect Dean del Mastro’s victory to be around the range of: 22183 – 24183 votes.

It’s as simple as that. Now, let’s do Betsy Mcgregor.

The average for Betsy McGregor for the last 16 is: 30.38%

30.38% of 57327 is: 17415

Then we’ll say: +- 1000 for margin of error.

So, we should expect Betsy McGregor to lose around the range of:

16415 – 18415 votes.

Did electionprediction call this one too soon? Let the numbers speak for itself.

Rebuttles:

1) The percentages are constant, they do not change, unless updated from new polling data. The estimated voter turn-out numbers will change because it’s dependent on how many actually cast their ballots.

2) The NDP and Green Party figures are not into account because they are implicitly the left-over of what’s left of the Liberal & Conservative cumulated figures from the actual aggregate whole.

Disclaimers:

1. This is only a predictive model. One must make the assumption that Peterborough is represented by the CTV Ontario Battleground Riding polling in order to accept my formula.