SEAT PROJECTIONS & RIDING DISCUSSION -- SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY OR RIDING

Ducasse Drops to Third, DÃ©ry Up to Second

Author: Éric Grenier (Bloc Québécois)

28 Sep

I’ve observed that the NDP has dropped in the polls in Quebec, from 14%-16% to 10%-12%. With such a movement, I decided to do a seat projection for Hull-Aylmer based on the system I’ve been using on my blog, Sovereignty en Anglais.

As we can see, Pierre Ducasse has dropped to third place, and RaphaÃ«l DÃ©ry has moved to within 1,800 votes of Marcel Proulx. I expect the trend to continue in this manner, and the margin between DÃ©ry and Proulx to shrink. I don’t think we’ll see Ducasse back on top, but I could be wrong.

Hull-Aylmer Riding

Marcel Proulx* – Liberals – 15,886
RaphaÃ«l DÃ©ry – Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois – 14,100
Pierre Ducasse – New Democrats – 12,668
Paul FrÃ©chette – Conservatives – 9,510
FrÃ©dÃ©ric Pouyot – Greens – 3,627

Cross-posted to http://sovereigntyenanglais.blogspot.com

Filed under: Bloc Québécois, Lanaudière / Laurentides / Outaouais, Liberal, Local Campaigns, NDP, Québec, Éric Grenier (Bloc Québécois)

7 Responses for "Ducasse Drops to Third, DÃ©ry Up to Second"

Louise Tremblay Matchett (NDP) September 28th, 2008 at 7:43 pm 1
Just put Pierre Ducasse in a debate situation in public against the other candidates….

The campaign is not over yet. I have heard Pierre Ducasse speak and he speaks passionately! He moves people when he speaks…

And the NDP are on the move all over the country. We all know that Quebec is a terrible place for les nÃ©o-democrats. But if any one NDP candidate in Quebec should join Thomas Mulcair, it should be Pierre Ducasse. Those of us who remember his speech at the NDP leadership convention which resulted in Jack Layton winning, will never forget how we all thought, “Pierre Ducasse has to be in the House of Commons” ….
Ã‰ric Grenier (Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois) September 28th, 2008 at 7:52 pm 2
A debate with the other candidates won’t change much. At most 10% of voters are affected by local candidates. What is happening at the national level is far more important, and as it is going better for the Bloc and stagnating for the NDP, that will probably be enough.

DÃ©ry is a good speaker too, and unlike Ducasse, is actually from the region and loves it very much. Ducasse is from the CÃ´te-Nord and was parachuted here because the NDP had a chance here.

EDIT: Ducasse was not parachuted here, my apologies for the mistake.

If more people hear DÃ©ry speak, they are as likely to be impressed by him as by Ducasse.
Paul Morphy September 29th, 2008 at 5:04 am 3
Eric,

Your analysis is defensible, even though I don’t agree with it. But please refrain from smearing Pierre Ducasse. He’s been living in the area for over 5 years, as he moved to work on the Hill. He bought a condo (close to where I live) and intends to stay in the area because he loves it.

He was NOT parachuted here. And it was not a party decision. He chose to come and live here.
Ã‰ric Grenier (Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois) September 29th, 2008 at 5:22 am 4
Paul, I will plead ignorance and apologise. Though, it is true that DÃ©ry is from the region while Ducasse is not.
Ã‰ric Grenier (Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois) September 29th, 2008 at 5:25 am 5
I have edited my comment to note my mistake.
ClÃ©ment Laberge September 29th, 2008 at 7:46 am 6
Monsieur Grenier,

Pouvez-vous nous expliquer la mÃ©thode adoptÃ©e pour Ã©tablir vos prÃ©dictions?

Merci Ã l’avance.
Ã‰ric Grenier (Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois) October 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 am 7
Simplement, je prends les sondages au QuÃ©bec, et utilise la difference entre les sondages et les rÃ©sultats de 2006 pour faire des projections.

Leave a reply below or start a thread in the discussion forums

Note: Sometimes people try to portray more support for their candidate or their perspective in the comments section by posing as different people. If you attempt to do this, we will delete all of your comments.

Update: despite the above warning, people are attempting to use multiple aliases, so we are now moderating all comments to check against possible abuses. We apologize for this inconvenience, however we will work to get comments posted as soon as possible.