For people living outside the Quebec City area, the Conservative breakthrough here might have been the biggest surprise of the 2006 election. But it shouldn’t have been. This region has never been a sovereignist stronghold, nor is it one of leftist activism.

This time around, the trend is for an even weaker Liberal showing – if that’s even mathematically possible – and the Bloc Québécois (like the PQ) is still trying to figure out a way to re-connect with this region. So even though the Conservatives won a couple of these ridings by very slim margins in 2006, it’s hard to see how they could lose them in 2008:

Beauport-Limoilou: In 2006, Conservative Sylvie Bouchard managed to defeat a well-known sitting BQ MP. There’s little reason to believe that she can’t hold it.

Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles: Pretty much the same story as above. Daniel Petit should hold for the Conservatives

Louis-Hébert: A squeaker last time around, but if Luc Harvey could beat the highly-respected Roger Clavet in 2006, he should be able to defend the seat against a BQ newcomer.

Louis-St-Laurent: My home riding. Josée Verner won this with 58% of the vote last time; if there is a safe Conservative seat in Quebec, this is it.

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier: Noted radio host André Arthur won in 2006, and since then he has voted with the Conservatives whenever they have needed his vote. The Conservatives have decided not to run a candidate against Arthur this time, for two reasons. Firstly, there’s the risk that the BQ would benefit from vote-splitting between Artur and the Conservatives. Secondly, the current situation suits everyone concerned: the Conservatives have a vote when they need it, and they don’t have to worry about getting Arthur – whose picture accompanies dictionary definitions of “loose cannon” – to maintain caucus discipline. Arthur should win again handily.

Québec: This is the question mark. The BQ’s Christiane Gagnon won with 42% of the vote of this downtown riding in 2006. Since then, a couple of things have happened. Firstly, there’s the consolidation of the Conservative position in the region. Secondly, there was the ADQ sweep in the 2007 provincial election. Agnès Maltais was able to hold onto the provincial riding of Taschereau for the PQ in 2007, and to the extent that Taschereau and the federal riding of Québec overlap, that suggests that Gagnon has a decent chance of holding out as well. But Québec also overlaps with the provincial ridings of Jean-Lesage and Vanier, both of which went ADQ. Moreover, the Liberals – who won 30% of the vote in 2006 – have botched their nomination process; some federalist voters who were in the habit of voting Liberal may decide to vote Conservative this time. Finally, there’s also the possibility that some progressive BQ voters might drift off to the NDP or the Greens. Christiane Gagnon may hold this seat, but it will be a very close-run thing.

Across the river, Maxime Bernier will easily hold Beauce, despite his demotion from cabinet. The ridings of Lévis-Bellechasse and Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière are in the hardest-of-hard-core ADQ territory; it’s difficult to imagine anyone taking these ridings away from sitting Conservative MPs.