Tim Naumetz of the Canadian Press last week pronounced Cambridge as a riding to watch. Here’s part what he said:

In southwestern Ontario, a key battleground in these gloomy economic times, Cambridge is shaping up as a nail-biter. The incumbent Tory, second-termer Gary Goodyear, has gone through some tough scrapes in Parliament. Manufacturing accounts for 20 per cent of jobs. The fact that four Liberals battled it out for the nomination, and that was last November, may be a clue. link

While it’s true that Gord Zeilstra of the Liberal Party has a head of steam and that Gary Goodyear has a less than stellar record as an MP, the two other parties may play spoiler. Max Lombardi of the NDP and Scott Cosman of the Greens could pull enough votes away from Zeilstra to ruin any chance at an upset.

Given that Mr. Cosman is a virtual unknown in the riding (even within the local Green Party association) and was nominated after the election call, it’s unlikely that we’ll see much of an impact from the Greens. The NDP, however, have an opportunity to capitalize on the significant manufacturing job losses that have plagued Cambridge in recent years. If the NDP can mobilize the local labour pool in their favour, they may be able to pull votes from both the Liberal and Conservative candidates – though it’s unlikely it would be enough for a win.

At this point with 27 days to go, I’ll go out on a limb and predict a narrow Conservative win in Cambridge. That prediction, of course, is subject to change – stay tuned.