17 Responses for "Battleground Ridings: Where the Election Will be Won"

1. Nick J Boragina September 17th, 2008 at 12:53 am 1

   your missing central nova!

2. Matt September 17th, 2008 at 6:00 am 2

   On what basis? This is just a list.
   I could make a list too… and it would probably be just as interesting.
   Could you – for these lists and predictions – consider providing some preamble?
   What are your predictions based on? What made up this list?
   For example – London West is not on this list. You’re predicting that it will flip Lib to Con. Okay, fair enough. This is (a) without any local polling data, and (b) without any blogs from the riding.
   So – if I am understanding this correctly – London West does not make the list because it’s too much of a slam-dunk, but a ‘slam-dunk’ based on your best hunches without local information or data.
   Fascinating methodology.

3. ToJo September 17th, 2008 at 8:41 am 3

   You’re missing Vegreville-Wainright! Its a swing riding! Every election since 2006 the winner of the election has won this riding!

   ps. Central Nova… Lol

4. Greg Morrow (Non-Partisan) September 17th, 2008 at 9:07 am 4

   Matt — you would do well to read up about DemocraticSPACE’s projections. See our ABOUT page.

   But are right that not enough context was given. So I’ve added some preamble that explains why these ridings are listed as battlegrounds: “These are the ridings that DemocraticSPACE is currently listing as “too close to call”, which means the margin of victory is 5% or less. While other ridings may be competitive (say margin of victory between 5-10%), these are the 68 closest ridings in our projections.”

   Nick — I did not miss Central Nova

   ToJo — I’m assuming you are joking

5. Fagstein » Montreal’s battleground ridings September 17th, 2008 at 10:06 am 5

   [...] DemocraticSPACE has compiled its list of 68 battleground ridings in this election. [...]

6. Matt September 17th, 2008 at 1:28 pm 6

   Thank you for adding the preamble.
   I’ve read your methodology… and I get it… and I even see that it works in previous elections (I’ve followed your page for years)… but I live in London West, and am a likely going to vote conservative: but I just just don’t see the sweep here that you do.
   The Liberal MP is popular, has been around for a long time, actually lives in the riding, is better known than the Conservative, and really has not ‘hot button’ issues to persuade or dissuade voters.
   Maybe I am getting it wrong. I guess I just don’t see this riding as a write-off for the liberals like you do… and think it dangerous practice in the event that people become complacent.

7. Greg Morrow (Non-Partisan) September 17th, 2008 at 1:34 pm 7

   Matt – the Liberals only won London West by 2.3 points last time. And as of today, the Liberals are down 6 points across Ontario from 2006, and the Conservatives are up 4.5 points, that’s a swing of over 10 points. London West doesn’t exactly follow the provincial averages, but it’s not that far off. It’ll let you do the math. Keep in mind that, on average, about 80% of people vote by party (not by local candidate). Things will undoubtedly change, but as of right now, London West is in our second category (tight race), not in our too close to call category.

8. Stephen Gordon (Non-Partisan) September 19th, 2008 at 4:27 pm 8

   I don’t know if this makes Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques ‘too close to call’, but you might want to look at this post. The sitting BQ MP is running as an independent, so it’s probably closer than what you’re calling at this point.

9. Pair Vote - Strategic Voting for 2008 Canadian Federal Election » Where the Vote Matters Most - You Decide September 21st, 2008 at 8:11 pm 9

   [...] Morrow of democraticSpace (my favourite election site) posted a few days ago his list of battleground ridings, 68 in [...]

10. Pair Vote - Strategic Voting for 2008 Canadian Federal Election » Where Can The Greens Win Seats? September 23rd, 2008 at 8:23 pm 10

    [...] get it up sooner than later so people could start adding and voting for their picks. Refer to this list of 68 ridings with the closest contests. I noticed Elizabeth May’s riding isn’t on the list – how many are willing to bet she [...]

11. Pair Vote - Strategic Voting for 2008 Canadian Federal Election » NDP: What Close Contests Can It Win? Make Your Picks September 24th, 2008 at 7:16 pm 11

    [...] NDP party supporters and political pundits, decide what ridings the NDP party has the best chance of winning. I plan to add to this list soon, but figured I’d get it up sooner than later so people could start adding and voting for their picks. Refer to this list of 68 ridings with the closest contests. [...]

12. Pair Vote - Strategic Voting for 2008 Canadian Federal Election » What swing ridings need Liberal votes most? September 25th, 2008 at 6:00 pm 12

    [...] Liberal party supporters and political pundits, decide what ridings the Liberal party has the best chance of winning. I plan to add to this list soon, but figured I’d get it up sooner than later so people could start adding and voting for their picks. Refer to this list of 68 ridings with the closest contests. [...]

13. Pair Vote - Strategic Voting for 2008 Canadian Federal Election » What swing ridings need Bloc votes most? September 26th, 2008 at 6:20 pm 13

    [...] Bloc party supporters and political pundits, decide what ridings the Bloc party has the best chance of winning. I plan to add to this list soon, but figured I’d get it up sooner than later so people could start adding and voting for their picks. Refer to this list of 68 ridings with the closest contests. [...]

14. Pair Vote - Strategic Voting for 2008 Canadian Federal Election » What swing ridings need Conservative votes most? September 27th, 2008 at 5:16 pm 14

    [...] Conservative party supporters and political pundits, decide what ridings the Conservative party has the best chance of winning. Refer to this list of 68 ridings with the closest contests. [...]

15. Connor October 6th, 2008 at 9:42 am 15

    Given the withdrawal of the NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands it appears that this will be a close riding. The other parties’ votes will be important in determining who is elected. If the idea is to reduce the Conservative numbers in Parliament, non-Conservative supporters should (hold their nose!?) and vote Liberal.

16. Byron October 7th, 2008 at 12:05 am 16

    What about Edmonton-Strathcona? NDP is polling around 2% below conservative right now.

17. Jon M October 10th, 2008 at 4:14 am 17

    I am somewhat surprised that my riding (Burlington) is not in play for both the Liberals and Conservatives. Burlington has been solidly Liberal provincially in the last couple of elections, and was so nationally for many years until 2006.

    What’s more, the former Liberal incumbant is running against the current Conservative incumbant, and I think the former has more name recognition in our area.

    A couple of weeks ago I would have given it to the Conservatives based on the apparent Ontario and National polls. Now I’m not so sure.