Today, let us move onto Regina. Much like Saskatoon the 4 Regina area ridings are split between the city proper and large portions of the surrounding rural area (see yesterday’s post for a key to each riding analyses). Regina represents a much strong NDP base support; however, the Liberals also enjoy enough support to play spoiler in 3 of 4 ridings:

PALLISER
Incumbent: Dave Batters (CON)
Last Election: 43.0/33.0/20.2/3.4
2008 Candidates:
CON - Ray Boughen
NDP – Don Mitchell
LIB – Cal Johnston

Analysis: A strong showing from all 3 major parties in 2006 saw Dave Batters greatly increase his vote total from less than 200 in 2004 to over 3,500 in 2006. Dave Batters recently announced that he will not be seeking re-election, taking away the incumbent advantage, though the Conservatives have a candidate in former Moose Jaw mayor Ray Boughen. The NDP candidate, Don Mitchell, is another the former mayor of Moose Jaw and has been on the doorstep since early 2007. The NDP are looking to claw back the votes lost between 2004 and 2006, but face a long uphill battle to make up the 3,500 deficit. The Liberals recently announced their own “star” candidate, a former Regina police officer. Unfortunately, despite the Liberal slide in Saskatchewan in 2006, the Liberal candidate (former Regina police chief Cal Johnston) will prove difficult for the NDP to convince on-the-fence-Liberal voters to put them over the top.

Prediction: A strong challenge from the NDP will be wasted by even a reasonable showing from the Liberals. Unless the Liberal vote completely collapses across the province and within the riding, the Conservatives should win by at least 2,000 votes. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.

REGINA-LUMSDEN-LAKE CENTRE
Incumbent: Tom Lukiwski (CON)
Last Election: 42.1/28.1/26.6/3.1
2008 Candidates:
CON – Tom Lukiwski
NDP – undeclared
LIB – Monica Lysack

Analysis: Despite the national headlines made by Tom Lukiwski over the 1991 video that captured him making homophobic remarks, despite his inscincere apology, and despite not even trying to reach out to the LGBT community as promised, it will take a monumental shift for either the NDP or Liberals to make up the nearly 5,000 vote difference. The 3 time NDP candidate, Moe Kovatch, has pulled out of the election due to family health concerns and another candidate has yet to be nominated. This move potentially opens the door for the Liberal candidate who will look to repeat the 2004 results that saw her party come within 122 votes. However, given the strong split between the NDP and Liberal vote in the riding and the sliding Liberal fortunes across Sask as of late, this is probably a pipe dream. It will be interesting to see who the NDP find to replace their departed candidate.

Prediction: The vote split and the seemingly blank check given to Conservative candidates by a large portion of Saskatchewan voters will be enough to ensure an easy 2,000-3,000 vote victory for Lukiwski. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.

REGINA-Qu’Appelle
Incumbent: Andrew Schneer (CON)
Last Election: 41.2/32.4/23.1/3.3
2008 Candidates:
CON – Andrew Scheer
NDP – Janice Bernier
LIB – Rod Flaman

Analysis: What seems to be a trend across the Regina ridings, Conservative Schneer increased his margin of victory from just under a 1,000 in 2004 to well over 2,500 in 2006, likely from the Liberal collapse in the province. Once a strong seat for the party, the NDP will be working hard to re-take this seat, which probably offers their best chance outside of Nettie Wiebe for a pick-up in 2008. NDP candidate Janice Bernier has been campaigning non-stop since early 2007 and has put enough of a scare into Schneer’s team that attack brochures featuring the NDP have been mailed out for the past year. However, as is the case in the other Regina ridings the NDP will be hard pressed to convince on-the-fence-Liberals to push them over the top in this riding as well. A rebound from the 2006 collapse and a strong campaign from the Liberal candidate will potentially play spoiler again.

Prediction: The vote difference won’t be impossible to overcome in this riding; however, expect the Liberals to play-up the old “vote split” again ensuring that a sufficient amount of swing voters become confused enough to vote Liberal and hand Scheer a 3rd term. Unless the NDP can counter this with an equally strong appeal to Liberal voters. I will probably get some major back-lash for this one but Seat TO CLOSE TO CALL.

WASCANA
Incumbent: Ralph Goodale (LIB)
Last Election: 30.0/14.7/51.8/3.5
2008 Candidates:
CON – Michelle Hunter
NDP – Stephen Moore
LIB – Ralph Goodale

Analysis: Goodale’s marigin of victory dropped from nearly 12,000 in 2004 to a mere 9,000 in 2006, from 57 to 52 % of the popular vote. Despite some bold predictions by many in the province, it will take a tidal wave combined with an earthquake to move Goodale from his oasis in Regina. Stephen Moore for the NDP and Michelle Hunter for the Conservatives will both put up strong campaigns but anyone who bases their predictions in reality should be hard pressed to expect King Ralph to be de-throned. Apparently even some SaskNDP MLAs are stumping for Goodale, which makes you wonder if he really is in trouble this time around.

Prediction: Enough said. Seat TO LIBERALS.