Looking on the ground in Regina I can note a couple things.

Cal Johnston is running a pretty solid campaign in Regina. Tons of signs, bright shiny pamphlets. In fact the only mailout I have received thus far has been from his campaign.

The problem for Johnston is that just as much of the urban part of the riding is in Moose Jaw. I doubt that his popularity is carrying over to that part of the riding.

From what I can tell Moose Jaw is a two horse race between Ray Boughen and Don Mitchell. Ray Boughen should have no trouble carrying the rural part of the riding.Â

If Johnston’s popularity can’t carry over to Moose Jaw, then he will be in third place.Â

Is Cal Johnston’s perceived popularity taking away votes from the Conservatives or the NDP? That will determine who wins Palliser.

On a fecund Sunday the husband and I were clicking around when we chanced upon JoyTV, our regional Christish (rather than Christian) channel here in the Lower Mainland. The show was some interview chat thing hosted by a rather self-involved young man. Who spliced in onanistic “reflections” on politics and voting between the actual interview/chat portions of the show. This was apparently a recast of a live show on Vision TV from last week.

We don’t have–many, at least–theocratic evangelicals in Canada. I have a few friends who are Saved and while we don’t agree on all things we also are quite OK at finding commonalities between us, yes even when one of us is a sodomite. It’s one of the things I love about Soviet Canuckistan: we generally can get our heads around the difference between what “affects me” and what “upsets me.”

But I digress…

The show caught my attention because it featured a one-on-one interview with Green leader Elizabeth May and all-about-me dude. She was impressive: easygoing, forthright, sensible, gutsy. I loved her speaking out in favour of social justice and secular pluralism as a Christian herself. I think dude was a bit scared of her. Too right.

Among the subsequent panelists were reps from each of the 4 main parties (ici, ce n’est pas le Bloc…they weren’t interested). Two of the reps are Vancouver Centre candidates: NDP Michael Byers and Tory Lorne Mayencourt. Byers came across and bright but a bit like a pit bull; Mayencourt when from silly to incomprehensible in about 30 seconds. If Grits can abandoned the Liberals because of Dion, every self-respecting Conservative in this riding should leave Mayencourt high and dry himself.

Byers hammered the Liberal candidate for Dion’s passive support of the Tories this last session of Parliament. Green dude hammered Mayencourt’s rather tragic claims to the Tory’s having a credible environmental policy. No one came across as awesome, but Lorne was by far the loser.

The debates are gonna be interesting….

Barring a political miracle (and they do happen from time to time), Liberal candidate Paul Bichler has basically been knocked out of the race for Sault Ste. Marie. So the final two weeks of the campaign are pitting NDP incumbent Tony Martin against Conservative challenger Cameron Ross. Given the makeup of this riding, which seldom favors Tories, and Tory infighting coupled with Cameron’s low profile over the past few years, I’m surprised Cameron is as strong as he is.

However, Cameron’s campaign is being boyed by the strong ABT (anyone but Tony) sentiment that has set in over the past few years. Many voters feel that Tony has not delivered much to the riding, unlike his provincial counterpart Liberal MPP David Orazietti. Yet many voters are still reluctant to cast their vote with Cameron, who hails from the riding’s rural border and is not well-known in the city.

Having said that, here’s a few thoughts on the local race:

1 – The Tories will try and frame the local election as a referendum on Tony’s representation as a fourth-party member, while the NDP will try and frame this as a referendum on the Harper government.

2 – Cameron is clearly winning the sign war. His signs are all over the place, in many different sizes, and in large numbers. There’s a psychological advantage to this.

3 – Tony is winning the air war. He’s all over the media, appealing to the working-class vote.

4 – The ground war is critical to both. For Cameron because the biggest criticism from average voters is that they don’t know him, he’s not visible. For Tony because the biggest criticism is that he has not delivered big things to the Sault like Orazietti, a member of government. Thus Cameron must introduce himself door-to-door and at major social function.s On the other hand, Tony must meet with voters one-on-one to lever his “nice guy” image into an argument it’s the “little things” he does as MP. Both campaign managers Glenn Gustafson for Tony and Ian Shields for Cameron, are experienced ground warriors and competent at directing a ground war.

5 – Locally, I haven’t seen any polls. However, the taxi drivers with whom I have spoken believe Cameron is going to win. The hairdressers, on the other hand, are telling me Tony will get back in. The waitresses seem split. So the buzz on the street is inconclusive. Everyone agrees, however, that the Liberals have been knocked out.

6 – Tony’s biggest danger is Orazietti, who has attacked him a couple times last week and called upon local voters to elect a politician that can work with the government to deliver more to the Sault. Interestingly enough, Orazietti hasn’t actually endorsed the Liberal candidate or Cameron. The other problem for Tony is that Orazietti is much more credible on the issues where he hits him – local jobs and the economy. In fact, Tony was our provincial MPP for several terms before Orazietti knocked him off on these issues.

A number of local Dippers are complaining about Orazietti’s interventions during the campaign. This won’t go far with average voters since Tony made multiple interventions for the NDP candidate during the last provincial campaign.

7 – Cameron’s biggest danger is remaining an unknown among average voters in the city. This allows Tony to frame the debate, maximizing Tony’s incumbent’s advantage. Basically, voters will often choose the politician they know personally over one they never met.

Political Compass has rated our political parties for this election.

Political Compass is a Web site that evaluates politicians and political parties.  It then places them on a left-right and top-down scale.  The horizontal axis represents economic policies: collectivism is on the far left while neo-liberalism is on the far-right.  The vertical axis represents social policies: dictators are at the top and anarchist are at the bottom.

Of course, they have a little quiz you can fill up to find out where you are on both scale.  For those who are interested, I’m at 7.88 on the economic scale and -5.33 on the social scale (Yes, I’m a freak!).

This year, they have placed the Conservatives at (5½, 5½), the Liberals at (2, 3), the Greens at (1, ½), the NDP at (-2, -2) and the Bloc at (-1½, -1). Strangely, in 2005, they had everyone near the center. I’m not sure what policy positions the Conservatives could have taken to be put so far away from their 2005 position.  On the world leader chart, Stephen Harper is actually just to the left of Gordon Brown …

More volubile in the US than back home, Harper talks to bloomberg news about the U.S. crisis to say something funny for the king of corporate tax cuts :

“Harper said one factor behind the U.S. crisis is “over-deregulation” and regulators that often are grasping to play “catch-up” with increasingly complex financial instruments. There is also an “inherent bias” in the U.S. tax code that gives homeowners incentives to take on too much debt, he said.”

 You can see that I did not put the words out of their context as I could have been temted to do.  Nevertheless, I think this is munition for Jack Harper if he takes time to read that article.

 Leaving the market to himself has nasty consequences.  Canadian Household assets are much safer with a government thats tames the markets so they don’t make foolish mistakes and hand out sickning bonuses to their CEOs.

This is an interesting story:

“Yasmin Ratansi’s statement at a Liberal rally today that the Prime Minister ‘does not really like women’ demonstrates just how desperate the Liberal Party has become during this election campaign.  They will say anything to try to win votes.”

If this is what the Liberals meant when they said that they were going to step up the pace of their campaign, then it’s definitely game over for them. It’s hard not to agree with the Tories on this one: this really shows how desperate the Liberals have become.

I am a firm believer in public transit – those who drive (in a silly pickup truck, no less) to the convenience store that is just half a block away are probably the biggest morons on the planet:

New Democrat Leader Jack Layton blasted Stephen Harper for neglecting public transit investment and announced the New Democrat plan for better, greener transit. “Better public transit is a critical need all across Canada,” Layton said. “Provinces and cities are doing their best, but need support and leadership from the Prime Minister. Stephen Harper won’t do it. I will.”

But it’s not only the Tories’ fault. The Liberals have always neglected this vital aspect as well.

That’s the old curse in politics: Once the point is reached where denials must be issued, it’s already too late. Allegations, no matter how ludicrous, will always stick to the accused in Canadian politics – “where there’s smoke, there’s fire”:

The Green Party wishes to reiterate that leader Elizabeth May has never advocated strategic voting. In an interview with the Toronto Star and in response to NDP leader Jack Layton suggesting he was open to a potential Liberal—NDP coalition, Ms. May suggested that all opposition leaders might consider some larger coalition effort before the vote.

This statement notwithstanding, it is not entirely true, because there is one proven example of strategic voting/conspiracy: the fact that Elizabeth May is the Liberal and Green candidate in her Nova Scotia riding.

One would think that Stéphane Dion had learned his lesson after snatching, without permission, the name of a company and attaching it to his own Green Shift plan. Unfortunately for him, he has not learned from the experience, which included an $8.5 million lawsuit followed by an undisclosed settlement, because he is doing it again:

The Liberal Party of Canada today announced the launch of its newest campaign website – i.liberal.ca – which gives voters single portal access to YouTube, Facebook, Flickr, Twitter and MySpace content focusing on the current election campaign.

At least this time, he didn’t misappropriate a trademarked name. So, he does understand now that stealing is a big no-no. However, the name “i.liberal.ca” is highly unfortunate, because it reads like “illiberal”. Then again, with this new name, Dion actually lives up to the principle of truth in advertising: under his leadership, the Liberal Party is anything but liberal.

DemocraticSPACE doesn’t endorse strategic voting, and their strategic voting guide exists far more to tell the vast majority of people NOT to vote strategically than to convince skeptics to do it. But if you look at the data, there actually are a small handful of ridings in which voting for your second-choice candidate could help avoid electing your least favourite candidate.

Edmonton-Strathcona is one of those ridings.

The qualifications for the list are stringent. For a riding to make the list, all three of the following three things need to be true:

1. It must be a close 2-way race (i.e. the two competing parties must be within 5%)
2. The chances of a third/fourth/fifth party winning the riding are remote (i.e. current support for those parties must be less than ~20%)
3. A small number of votes from supporters of the third/fourth/fifth party can make a difference (i.e. fewer than 1 in 3 voters).

This means that according to democraticSPACE’s notoriously reliable mathematical model, fewer than 1 in 3 Liberals or Greens voting NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona could make the difference between a win for NDP candidate Linda Duncan and a win for Conservative candidate Rahim Jaffer.

When you can say something like that about a riding in Alberta, we’re definitely living in exciting times. And they say Canadian politics is boring!

Back by popular demand! The first edition of the DemocraticSPACE Strategic Voting Guides are now available. See the links in the upper right of every page. These are non-partisan guides.

SUMMARY See Strategic Voting Guide Homepage
The vast majority of ridings in Canada are NOT appropriate for strategic voting whatsoever (in that it will not impact the outcome). There are only 13 ridings where it is appropriate for Conservative supporters, 17 ridings for Liberal supporters, 30 ridings for NDP supporters and 39 ridings for Green supporters.

The guides work like this: Conservative strategic voting is to ensure a Liberal does not win; Liberal, NDP, and Green strategic voting is to ensure a Conservative does not win. Obviously there are many different permutations, but these are, by far, the two most common forms of strategic voting.

So unless your riding is listed in the guide, DO NOT VOTE STRATEGICALLY.

RIDING-BY-RIDING STRATEGIC VOTING GUIDES
Select the party you support to check if your riding is appropriate for strategic voting.

CONSERVATIVE	LIBERAL	NDP	GREEN

Important Note:
DemocraticSPACE does not endorse strategic voting (i.e. where voters cast their ballot for their second choice party to prevent a less favourable party from winning). We believe that Canada should explore options of adding an element of proportionality into our electoral system to ensure fair and accurate representation in parliament. However, strategic voting happens in Canada. DemocraticSPACE believes that it is better to make informed choices than misinformed choices. Therefore, this guide is meant to help voters who are thinking of voting strategically.

In order for a riding to qualify for strategic voting, we feel 3 conditions must be met:
1. It must be a close 2-way race (i.e. the two other parties must be within 5%)
2. The chances of third/fourth/fifth party winning riding are remote (i.e. support < ~20%)
3. Small number of votes of third/fourth/fifth party can make a difference (i.e. < 1 in 3 voters).

L’article de Tristan Péloquin, disponible sur cyberpresse, nous apprend que les conservateurs refusent encore de divulguer leur position environnemental, s’il en ont une…

«C’est à la fois honteux et inquiétant que le gouvernement (et son parti) ne prenne pas le temps de répondre à des questions qui couvrent un enjeu prioritaire pour une grande partie de la population», déplore Steven Guilbault, coordonnateur d’Équiterre.

Effectivement, c’est la troisième élections consécutives que le Parti Conservateur du Canada refusent de répondre au questionnaire d’Équiterre, un organisme environnemental sérieux cofondé par Steven Guilbault, ancien porte-parole de Greenpeace Québec. Ce que je trouve le plus préoccupant c’est qu’Harper préfère se taire plutôt que de divulguer ses vrais couleurs, balayant ainsi la populaire question sous le tapis. Tout ceci ne laisse qu’envisagé des relations houleuses entre un futur gouvernement Harper majoritaire et les différents organismes environnementaux.

Sur une note plus positive, il est à noter que les quatre autres grands partis fédéraux ont tous eux des notes presque parfaites. Les Verts et le bloc mènent le chemin avec des notes de 12/12, suivi du NPD à 11/12 et des Libéraux a 10/12. Les résultats du questionnaire sont disponible içi.

La manchette du Quotidien de Chicoutimi souligne que le dernier sondage donne Jean-Pierre Blackburn en deuxième, derrière la Bloquiste Chantale Bouchard. Si on avait voter aujourd’hui elle l’aurait emporté avec une majorité absolu soit 50,4% des suffrages. Pour avoir les données il faut aller sur l’article de Cyberpresse qui parle de la résistance du Bloq. La version en ligne du Quotidien ne les fournit pas.

The polls suggest the current electoral system favors the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc at the expense of the NDP and Greens. Some argue this discourages people from voting, and propose proportional representation (PR) as the solution. Perhaps it is part of a solution. But a real issue which is never discussed is lack of representation by population (Rep by Pop), which causes some votes to be worth more than others.

If anyone should be discouraged it is residents of Ontario, Alberta and BC. These have 1 MP for every 120,000 in population. All the other provinces are over-represented, from the extreme case of PEI which negotiated a great deal at Confederation (4 MPs for a population of 140,000) to Quebec (1 MP per 103,000). So at this election, the 4 Maritime provinces will elect 32 MPs as BC elects 36, even though BC has double the population. This isn’t fair.

 Electoral reform, combining Rep by Pop with some form of PR (say 1 for every 2% of the vote, or 50) will solve part of the voter turnout issue by making sure every vote matters equally. The greater responsibility falls on politicians. Get voters engaged by proposing and debating ideas instead of launching personal/negative attacks or bickering. Voters are disenchanted with politicians. If the politicians change the way they behave, maybe voters will as well.

Shorter Brian McGarry, Conservative candidate in Ottawa-Centre: “Don’t like the arts cuts? Have a baby, li’l lady.”

[H/t Queer Thoughts and Kady O'Malley @7:41:42]

Today, a poll from CROP-Le Droit-Gesca was released in the Ottawa-Gatineau newspaper Le Droit. It covered the local election in Gatineau. The results:

Richard Nadeau РBloc Qu̩b̩cois Р32% (-7 from 2006 election)
Denis Tass̩ РConservatives Р22% (+5)
Fran̤oise Boivin РNew Democrats Р21% (+11)
Michel Simard – Liberals – 20% (-11)

These polling numbers are interesting, and there is a lot to learn from for Hull-Aylmer. The Bloc support is still relatively solid and its decrease is more or less proportional to the Bloc’s national numbers. It is worth noting, however, that Nadeau is the incumbent. In a disputed riding, being the incumbent is difficult for Bloc MPs because of their role as an opposition party. In Hull-Aylmer, Raphaël Déry is not the incumbent and so there isn’t any sort of grudge in terms of what the Bloc has or hasn’t done for Hull-Aylmer.

The Conservatives have shown moderate growth, but in this urban riding it isn’t enough, and we don’t need to worry about them in Hull-Aylmer.

The NDP shows real growth potential, and has improved its position in Gatineau by about the same proportion as the NDP in Quebec as a whole. However, Gatineau is a special case. Boivin used to be a Liberal MP for the riding, and so in addition to gaining votes because of the NDP’s strong performance in the province, she is stealing votes from the Liberals because of her personal history. In Hull-Aylmer, this tells me that growth is possible, but if the NDP follows national trends in Gatineau with a former Liberal MP, Pierre Ducasse can’t hope for that sort of vote-switching in Hull-Aylmer. He has only the boost of the national campaign to draw from.

Lastly, and simply, the Liberals are in free fall. Marcel Proulx will feel the pinch as well.

Cross posted to my blog Sovereignty en Anglais.