In defence of electionprediction:

In 2000, 50920 voted. In 2004, 57631 voted. In 2006, 63431 voted. If we add them together and divide them by 3 we get the average: 57327. We’ll use that number as our predicted number of voters who will be voting on Oct. 14. Although, the number of electors in Peterborough are actually much higher. However, for our purposes, 57327 will suffice.

So far, CTV has polled Ontario Battleground Ridings, (Peterborough is a battleground riding) 16 times since the start of the election. The average of the 16 snapshots for the Conservatives is: 40.44%

40.44% of 57327 is: 23183.

Then we’ll say: +- 1000 for margin of error.

So, we should expect Dean del Mastro’s victory to be around the range of: 22183 – 24183 votes.

It’s as simple as that. Now, let’s do Betsy Mcgregor.

The average for Betsy McGregor for the last 16 is: 30.38%

30.38% of 57327 is: 17415

Then we’ll say: +- 1000 for margin of error.

So, we should expect Betsy McGregor to lose around the range of:

16415 – 18415 votes.

Did electionprediction call this one too soon? Let the numbers speak for itself.

Rebuttles:

1) The percentages are constant, they do not change, unless updated from new polling data. The estimated voter turn-out numbers will change because it’s dependent on how many actually cast their ballots.

2) The NDP and Green Party figures are not into account because they are implicitly the left-over of what’s left of the Liberal & Conservative cumulated figures from the actual aggregate whole.

Disclaimers:

1. This is only a predictive model. One must make the assumption that Peterborough is represented by the CTV Ontario Battleground Riding polling in order to accept my formula.

In part two of my profile of the ridings of Waterloo Region, crossposted to my blog, I move north from Kitchener Centre to talk about the urban riding of Kitchener-Waterloo. This riding takes in the north end of Kitchener and all of the City of Waterloo. The average income in this riding is higher, and it encompasses two universities and their associated students and faculty.

Whereas Kitchener Centre has been described as a safe Liberal seat, I believe Kitchener-Waterloo’s representation has favoured incumbency. Federally, Liberal MP Andrew Telegdi has served the area since 1993, but provincially, Progressive Conservative MP Elizabeth Witmer won the riding in 1990 during the Bob Rae landslide, and she’s continued to hold it through the rising and falling fortunes of her party. Both Telegdi and Witmer have a long history of serving their community at the municipal and school board level, and it seems likely that they’ll continue to represent the area for years to come.

That said, the diverse urban population of Waterloo makes for competitive elections. The Green Party and the New Democrats retain a presence, and Green candidate Cathy MacLellan has received excellent reviews of her performance at a recent all-candidates’ debate.

Here’s a brief list of the candidates that are running in this riding:

Andrew Telegdi, 67 62 (Liberals): Andrew Telegdi has represented Kitchener-Waterloo since the riding was created in 1997. He was first elected to parliament back in 1993 and has a political resume going back to the 1970s when he served on the University of Waterloo’s student council. His outspoken nature has made him a number of enemies. Warren Kinsella still hasn’t forgiven Telegdi for speaking out against Prime Minister Chretien in the drive to strip suspected war criminal Helmut Oberlander of his Canadian citizenship, and this prominent Liberal campaigner publicly endorsed Telegdi’s opponents during the 2004 election. Much was also made of his use, in 1975, of a racially charged term in a non-racist context while serving as part of University of Waterloo’s Federation of Students. For his part, Telegdi has called Kinsella “a cancer on the party”. Telegdi has weathered these controversies, however, and has been re-elected handily each time. At present, things appear to have been patched up, or at least quietly set aside.

Peter Braid, 44 (Conservatives): Peter Braid brings with him some experience in public service, especially as part of the Immigration and Refugee Board. His most recent job was as Director of Operations at Sun Life Financial in Waterloo. Braid lives in Waterloo and has a family with two teenage daughters.

Braid shares his problems with campaign-mate Stephen Woodworth in terms of his web presence. His website is anaemic, and the campaign news section doesn’t mention Stephen Harper’s visit to the region. It’s becoming clear to me that, in Waterloo Region at least, the Conservative candidates’ web presence is being tightly managed by the national party campaign. This is, I believe, to the candidates’ detriment, as it doesn’t allow prospective voters much of an opportunity to warm to the individuals who are running.

Cindy Jacobsen, 49 (New Democrats): Like her campaign-mate Oz Cole-Arnal, Cindy Jacobsen is a Lutheran minister committed to her cause of social justice. She became Reverend Jacobsen and earned her doctorate in 2007 at Wilfred Laurier University, which it would seem is fast becoming a hotbed of Lutheran radicalism (ha ha). Born in Wisconsin, she became a Canadian citizen in 1998 and has served her community through St. Mark’s Community Ministry Program, helping the working poor make ends meet.

Jacobsen has a decent web presence, detailing her life work and political interests. She is also on Facebook.

Cathy MacLellan, 47 (Green Party): Cathy MacLellan has strong humanitarian and environmental experience, working for the Mennonite Central Committee and a hospice volunteer. Her humanitarian work has taken her to India, Burkina Faso, and Rwanda. She and her husband run ARISE Technologies, a publicly traded company “committed to taking solar energy mainstream.” MacLellan also has an effective web presence, including her own blog.

Kyle Huntingdon (Canadian Action Party): Wilfred Laurier student Kyle Huntingdon is hoisting the banner for this left-leaning nationalist party. His web presence is slight, but reviews suggest he conducted himself well in the all candidates debate, effectively talking up CAP’s main plank: monetary reform. While he earned the respect of people in attendance, it seems unlikely to me that the CAP platform will resonate enough with local voters to translate into much success at the ballot box.

Ramon Portillo, (Communist): Born in El Salvador, Ramon Portillo is running for the Communists, which today appear to be primarily an anti-Free Trade party. He was no web presence to speak of, but participated in the recent all candidates’ debate.

Jason Cousineau, (Libertarian): Jason Cousineau carries the banner that believes in less government interference for everybody, everywhere, but he has no web presence, and skipped out on the recent all candidates’ debate. Perhaps his disdain for government includes a disdain for political campaigning? Understandable, but ultimately self destructive, don’t you think?

Mark Corbiere, (Independent): Rounding out the list is independent candidate Mark Corbiere, a youth organizer who ran independently in Kitchener Centre during the 2004 general election. Not much is known about him, as he doesn’t appear to have a web presence, but he was a loud voice in the audience at the 2006 Kitchener-Waterloo all candidates debate, as he heckled the other candidates and the moderator.

Braid took an early lead in the sign wars, but Telegdi’s support has shown itself too. One also does not have to look hard for New Democratic or Green Party supporters waving their colours. The riding should be competitive, although I fully expect incumbent Telegdi to win it, yet again.

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Correction: Kitchener CentreIn my profile of Kitchener Centre and its candidates, I accidentally left one individual out. Martin Suter is running for the Communists once again. This truck driver ran for this party in the 2006 and 2000 elections. He has no web presence, and was able to find out more about him from this profile done for the 2000 election by the Globe and Mail.

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Further Reading

• Waterloo Region Record’s report on the K-W Debates.

This announcement of a press release to come sounds ominous and promises one hell of a fight between the two “conservative” candidates in Calgary Northeast:

Roger Richard, the independent conservative campaigning for the riding of Calgary NE is calling for his Tory opponent to release his law society disciplinary record. “I am concerned not only that the conservative voters of the riding did not truly nominate my opponent and secondly do not know enough about him” said Roger.

His law society disciplinary record? Roger Richard would call for its disclosure only if he already knew, or suspected, that it contained some rather damaging information.

Whether or not it’s true, but if this press release does go forward, as promised, expect Mr. Richard’s opponent to fire off some statements of claim.

This battle between two conservatives is starting to get ugly, folks, and as I wrote previously, this conflict could put a Liberal or Green candidate into the winning seat.

Last night was the first all-candidates debate of this election in St. Catharines airing on Cogeco cabel TV.

Probably the biggest shock that came out of the debate was Rick Dykstra, after being grilled about his party’s decision to raise taxes on income trusts, admitting that his party broke it’s promise not to tax income trusts and apologizing for adding taxes to income trusts after promising not to.

“We made a commitment. We didn’t keep that commitment, and for that I apologize to the people of St. Catharines who were impacted by that decision.” (Federal Election Candidates Debate, Cogeco, September 23, 2008)

This is the first real sign that Rick Dykstra is trying to run away from the record of his party. As Jim Flaherty, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have been completely unapologetic about flip-flopping on income trusts.

This morning I had the opportunity to talk for a few minutes to the Conservative candidate in the riding of St-Laurent-Cartierville.  Dennis Galiatsatos, told me that he has been going door to door in the riding and the issue which seems to be the most important is “taxes”.  

Let’s face it, we all hate “taxes”.  I said to the candidate,  “But taxes go hand-in-hand with services and people are also complaining about service cuts.”

The candidate replied to me, that he is totally aware of how voters seem to want their bread buttered on both sides….

I am asking, now, how it is we can have the kind of population who do not understand the relationship between taxes and services.   Afterall,  personal  income tax has come down since 2004 and Canada’s budgetary surplus.  But everyone complains about underfunding in so many areas!  Although complaints are especially about our most expensive program, Healthcare, (which the average US citizen has to pay a minimun of $500 per month for from their own take home pay), complaints about so many other issues which are often governed by provinces, cities and municipalities are also made.    Oh yes, and gasoline taxes!  Whose responsibility is that?

I look at the very privatized and unregulated US economy now and think, “Here is one of the most powerful countries in the world.  And now, with a laissez-faire approach to their economy, is now finding themselves facing bankruptcy. 

To close,  I would rather pay my share of taxes and have services I need in a somewhat regulated economy.  I also want to see monitoring of some of the most important resources we have to keep us afloat as an independant, parliamentary democracy.  That is also why I support and will continue to support the New Democratic Party.

While most of the country is in the midst of their third week of the campaign, here in Guelph we’re in the midst of the eighth.  By the time October 14th rolls around, Guelph will have had one of the longest running campaigns in Canadian history, at eleven and a half weeks.  As a result, most of the campaigns in town have taken a more low key tone for the first few weeks.

 Most campaigns have taken things a little slower since the General Election was called, and they have been working on maintaining their momentum… repairing and replacing arterial signs, recharging their batteries, preparing for the next round of the campaign.

So far, it’s been an interesting campaign.  All of the parties had the city plastered with arterial signs within five hours of the by-election writ being dropped.  Lawn signs followed shortly thereafter, and all of the parties have a significant number on lawns throught the city.  The majority of NDP and Green party signs are fighting it out on lawns surrounding the core, while the Liberals and the Tories fight it out on lawns surrounding the rest of the city.  I’ve seen more signs out than ever before, and know for a fact that the Tories have more signs up than any other campaign before.

Though this is a liberal riding, it’s far from clear who will come out victorious this time around.  The Greens are putting forward a very strong effort, the NDP and the Tories both have star candidates, and the Liberals are hurting under the leadership of Mr. Dion.  Will it be enough for someone else to wrest this from the Grits?

Diana Cabott (Lib) began campaigning on the Liberal party platform, she received rather predictable replies from Tish Lakes (NDP) and Ron Cannan (Con Incumbent). Not too many surprises about what everyone had to say, both the Conservative and NDP positions went after the carbon angle, while Cabott happily pushed away on economic issues. Another day another sound bite.  With all of the angry retired income trust holders/voters in this retirement haven, speculation abounds on whether Cabott could come close to knocking off the Conservative Cannon.  I was a little surprised to see that Cabott never found a way to allude to income trusts but instead got reported on emphasizing the Libs not running a deficit, an important point here in the Valley, but not the one I would have necessarily expected as her closing point.

 Read the whole thing <a href=”http://“>here

Peach Arch News announces three upcoming all candidates meetings.

• Sept. 28, 2PM: Ocean Park Community Hall, 1577 128 St. Surrey
• Oct. 1, 7PM: Star of the Sea Hall, 15262 Pacific Ave., White Rock
• Oct. 3, 9AM: Peach Arch Hospital lecture hall, ground floor, 15521 Russell Ave., White Rock

More of Raven’s writings can be found at Fumbled Mumblings.

Anyone getting a little alarmed about Stephen Harper using the RCMP as his Praetorian Guard?

I don’t put the blame totally on Harper or his Liberal predecessor Jean Chrétien either. The RCMP, long a law unto itself, an elite squad of Canadians whose members are permitted to kill with impunity, clearly fancies itself in this role.

What is happening to this country? Why isn’t continued RCMP wrong-doing an election issue?

I have reported about this split in Calgary Northeast before.

The independent/conservative candidate Roger Richard has launched his own blog – just in case people are interested.

In one of his blog posts, Mr. Richard talks about his Liberal opponent’s expectations of using this split between Conservative and conservative to his own advantage. Mr. Richard’s response:

[T]his is a conservative riding, and no matter who wins, it will be a conservative.

Well, not necessarily, as I wrote in a comment:

Aren’t you afraid that you’re creating a mini-version of the old PC-Reform split that allowed the Liberals to govern for 13 years?

I am not taking sides in this intra-riding conflict between you and the “other guy”; I am not involved, so I don’t know the details and facts first-hand.

But if you guys split the conservative vote, someone else could very well slip through the middle – not necessarily the Liberal guy; it might also be the Green candidate (remember: Green is the second choice of Calgary voters in many, if not most, ridings).

October 14 will be an interesting day for sure.

First off, I apologise for being out of action on the blogs for the last week or so. I had occasion to be thankful that we have a good, publically funded health system – we spent 3 nights in Emergency with my son, who ended up admitted for a couple of days.

We still haven’t got any flyers from any candidates, so I went out to pick up literature from the offices today, and speak to the candidates or their campaigners where possible.

I am going to start today with some background on the candidate I am going to be voting for, Peter Ferreira. I spoke with Mr. Ferreira for a short while today, and asked him what he was seeing as the major issues in Davenport. The answer: South of Bloor, the environment and cuts to arts and cultural programs. North of Bloor: Immigration and Employment. At the end of a long discussion about the state of immigration, and how it affects Davenport particularly, we ended up talking about what Davenport really needs.  Where do we, in Davenport, need money spent?

The list from the NDP:

Seniors services
Health Care
Transit
Infrastructure
Respect / Dignity for Seniors
A fair deal for “irregular” immigrants
Sorting out the immigration backlog
Crime, particularly drug related in some parts of the riding

The last item is apparent from the location of Mr. Ferreira’s (and 2 other candidates’) offices, all located in empty storefronts in the Bloor/Lansdowne area, which is in obvious need of some renewal. This was really brought home when Jack Layton made a flying visit to the office last week at the same time as the police were called to handle a man showing a handgun on Bloor St. near the office. It’s not that Mr. Layton was a target, but rather a statement about some urgent needs in Davenport.

Davenport also needs support for our newest Canadians, and those who wish to be reunited with the rest of their families in their new country.  We may not be the richest part of the province, but we are strong and hardworking.

What the campaign feels this election is about was stated best by a volunteer in the office, who said “We need to do a better job taking care of our neighbours”. As a concrete show of support for their real neighbours on Bloor, the campaign is collecting personal care products and socks for Savards Women’s Shelter. Savards houses women with mental health issues.  This is a part of being a neighbour.

As I rode away, I saw two women greet each other on the street with a hug, and overheard the conversation:
“Hey! How are you ?!”
“Hey, I’m not a whore anymore!!”
“Awesome!!”
This conversation is also a part of being a neighbour in a community that can celebrate renewal and support each other.  The NDP in Davenport would like to see this happen.

Cynic here didn’t think it would happen. The letter exceeded the Letter-to-the-Editor word limit. Times three. But my letter to the local paper made it anyway.

Originally titled Competition It Isn’t, here it is under the headline “Electoral systems needs change to promote democracy.”

Article removed at author’s request.

Oh my. This stuff never gets old.

“[Jack] Harris’ district of Signal Hill/Quidi Vidi takes in east end [sic] of St. John’s where the granolas live. The granolas are known for their intelligence and artistic flair and for voting against the grain. So many of them started out with high hopes to change the world… They still vote New Democrat, out of habit if nothing else… For the New Democrats, the trek to victory will only begin when the party sees itself as a winner. And not the loser that it is.”

- Ryan Cleary, the Newfoundland Herald, March 2, 2003, p.3

Ryan and Jack are now both running in neighbouring St. John’s ridings for the NDP.

(thanks to the avid reader who sent this along) More background, here.

Way up.

Two recent polls had put the Bloc Québécois a few points up at 34% but today Nanos gives the Bloc Québécois 40% support in Quebec, only 2-points down from their 2006 result. The Conservatives are at 23%, the NDP at 18%, and the Liberals at 14%.

The Bloc gain can mostly be credited to Duceppe’s strong appearance on Tout le monde en parle, the recent uproar over the Conservative cuts in culture, and the arrogance of Conservative ads targeting Bloc voters.

Just for fun, here are today’s Sovereignty en Anglais seat projections, amended with this new Quebec result:

Conservatives: 132 seats
Liberals: 94 seats
Bloc Québécois: 49 seats
New Democrats: 32 seats
Independents: 1 seat

And here are the projections for Hull-Aylmer with this new number and using the raw math:

Pierre Ducasse – New Democrats – 20,002 votes
Raphaël Déry – Bloc Québécois – 15,000 votes
Marcel Proulx – Liberals – 11,830 votes
Paul Frechette – Conservatives – 8,680 votes

So, now the fight becomes one between Déry and Ducasse. And since I think it is impossible that the NDP will increase their vote total by 12,000 (every party has its ceiling and its floor), I’d have to say that the Bloc Québécois should not stop working because it is within their grasp.

Cross posted to http://sovereigntyenanglais.blogspot.com

The over confidence of Harper in his non-confidence technique is going to blow up in his face one of these days, particularly once Canadians realize what it says about his view of voters who didn’t elect his Conservatives. In other words, the majority of us.

Most public opinion polls taken in the months leading up to this federal election campaign suggested that another minority government for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives was very likely. Mr. Harper was well aware of this …; indeed he predicted another minority on the campaign’s first day. Now, however, he is acting as though he would in effect refuse to accept that result.

For the second time in two days, Mr. Harper announced yesterday that his party would reintroduce anti-crime legislation that the previous Parliament did not pass – and that, if the opposition stood in the way, he would be ready to force another election over it…

This is not how a minority government should work. Confidence votes are to be limited to money bills and measures at the core of the government’s agenda – not routinely invoked by a prime minister whenever he wishes to put pressure on other parties to support less important bills. If Canadians elect the Conservatives with another minority, they will be explicitly saying that they have not entrusted them with full power over the legislative agenda – that they expect them to try to work with the other parties…

If [the opposition parties] have deep-seated objections to an anti-crime initiative, or any other bill, then they should vote against it. Mr. Harper should not put the Governor-General in the highly controversial constitutional position of having to think about declining a request to call another election in the near future and inviting the opposition government to form a government.

    

Would the opposition parties call Harper’s bluff? I doubt it. At least, given past performance particularly by the Liberals, there’s no evidence they would. But if they don’t, the situation is worse than Harper bamboozling his opposition into adopting untenable positions.

He would effectively, through our representatives, be blackmailing the Canadian public into submission and forcing us to accept his way or no way.

Harper’s blackmail has financial consequences too. Each election which must be run costs taxpayers millions. But Harper doesn’t care about that, because it’s all about forcing Canada into the direction he wants it to go.

Further, Canadians have elected three minority governments in the past eight years and is about to elect the fourth. We are demanding, through our votes, that parties work together.

Had we proportional representation and given the number of seats Harper is likely to get, he would be forced to form a coalition government – and if he couldn’t or wouldn’t, the other parties I’m sure would be happy to oblige.

• Sat Sep 27, 2pm. GABRIOLA ISLAND. Organized by Gabriola Ratepayers Association, Gabriola Island Community Hall, 2200 South Rd.
• Mon Oct 6, 6:30-9pm. NANAIMO. Organized by Greater Nanaimo Chamber of Commerce, Vancouver Island Real Estate Board, Nanaimo News Bulletin, Island Radio, ‘A’ British Columbia. Nanaimo District Senior Secondary School, 355 Wakesiah Av.
• Tue Oct 7, 7pm. DUNCAN. Organized by Duncan Chamber of Commerce, Island Savings Centre (formerly named the Cowichan Centre), 2697 James St.
• Wed Oct 8, 1:30-3:30pm. NANAIMO. Organized by Vancouver Island University Students’ Union, Bldg 355, Rm 211.
• Thu Oct 9, 10-11:15am. MILL BAY. Organizer: Ric Snyder, Social Studies Dept, 250-746-6916. Frances Kelsey Senior Secondary School, 953 Shawnigan-Mill Bay Rd.

Lots more Edmonton-Strathcona events coming up!

First, there are the two upcoming All-Candidates’ forums. The one at the University of Alberta has been moved to Monday, September 29, 2008 from 7:00pm – 10:00pm, and it will take place in the Myer Horowitz Theatre (2nd Floor, Students’ Union Building) on the U of A campus. More details can be found on Facebook here. There will also be a second forum at the Garneau United Church on Wednesday, October 8, 2008 from 7:00pm – 9:00pm, at 11148-84 Ave. More details of this one can be found on Facebook here.

The Linda Duncan campaign is holding a pub event tomorrow night starting at 10pm at the Empress Ale House (details on Facebook here), a youth blitz and party at noon on Saturday, September 27th (details on Facebook here), and a large canvass-and-party at noon on Saturday, October 4th (details on Facebook here)

Finally, here are also rumours of an event being held in the city with Stephen Harper sometime tomorrow, but it doesn’t seem to have been advertised anywhere. If you do know the details, please post them here, and I’ll update. [Update: It seems the event is an invitation-only affair. Never mind.]

This is the third in a series of four posts about each of the four major parties in the Edmonton-Strathcona riding, which will be posted in the order of the 2006 vote totals. This post deals with the Liberals.

2006 results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservatives	Rahim Jaffer	22,009	41.7%	+2.3%
	New Democrats	Linda Duncan	17,153	32.5%	+8.7%
	LIBERALS	Andy Hladyshevsky	9,391	17.8%	-11.2%
	Greens	Cameron Wakefield	3,139	5.9%	-0.6%

The Liberals’ vote had been inching down over each of the four elections prior to 2006, but in that year it took a much deeper dive of more than eleven points. This made the nomination process somewhat more complicated for the Liberals than it had been for the Conservatives or even for the New Democrats. It’s more difficult to attract a strong candidate if the riding doesn’t look winnable, and yet still important if you don’t want to lose too much ground. And of course there was the Liberal leader’s personal commitment to run one-third women candidates to consider as well. Given these factors, it’s unsurprising that the nomination process was a bit more of an ordeal in the Liberal camp.

First, on the Liberal Alberta website’s events page (which has since been taken down), the Liberals advertised a “Meet the Candidate” evening for mid-February 2007, with a guest speaker of John Cannis (Liberal MP for Scarborough-Centre), and a candidate speech by Tofael Chowdhury (a local clinical psychiatrist and an immigrant from Bangladesh). It was later updated to include a second speech by Andy Hladyshevsky, the lawyer who had run for the party in this riding in 2006. A few weeks after that event was held, then, the Edmonton Journal reported that Claudette Roy, a local advocate for bilingual education, would be seeking the nomination alongside Chowdhury. There was no mention of Hladyshevsky.

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Infrastructure is a big word, and it is, or should be, a big issue in Canada’s federal election. All the parties are offering solutions of one form or another. The Liberals would work with municipalities and the provinces to implement new funding programs. The Greens want to put the GST back up to six per cent to fund new infrastructure. The cities want a penny from the gasoline tax.

Meanwhile, Toronto’s public transit debacle continues to unfold. The latest misfiring comes from Metrolinx, the public agency charged with finding solutions to traffic gridlock in the Toronto-Hamilton area.

It issued a blue-sky report yesterday promising a 25-year plan, but without saying a word on how to cover its $50 billion cost.

Metrolinx chairman Rob MacIsaac offered this take-it or leave-it choice: “The cost of not proceeding with this plan would be higher than the cost of proceeding with it. We cannot be scared away from this challenge.” Sounds a bit like what the U.S. Congress is being told about the Wall Street bail-out.

MacIsaac’s report raised the usual anti-tax chant from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

“We’re pleased to see that taxpayers have been saved from the prospect of new taxes, new tolls, road fees and congestion charges,” says Kevin Gaudet.

I wonder who he expects will pay for new subways, new streetcars, new roads?

Against this background, the Toronto Transit Commission continues to blunder along, trying to put together its $1.25 billion project to buy new streetcars.

The TTC was going to award the contract to Bombardier after two competitors pulled out, expressing concern about a questionable tendering process. Then it suddenly decided that Bombardier’s cars wouldn’t be able to handle the curves and hills on Toronto routes, so presto, their bid becomes “non-compliant.”

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