2008 CANADA ELECTION

14 October 2008

SEAT PROJECTIONS & RIDING DISCUSSION -- SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY OR RIDING

September 19th, 2008 Articles

Et si Josée Verner avait raison?

On peut aimer ou pas Josée Verner mais tout le monde semble avoir son opinion sur la députée de Louis-St-Laurent.

L’annonce de coupures dans divers programmes de visibilité et de promotion de la culture a mené à une levée de boucliers du milieu artistique et ce, dans la plus totale indifférence de la population. Si les artistes veulent se faire entendre dans cette élection, ils auront intérêt à resserrer le message car, pour l’instant, c’est une véritable catastrophe de relations publiques. Des initiatives comme le concert contre les coupures et le site JeVotePourLaCulture.com sont louables mais demeurent marginales face au typhon d’information dans lequel on demande aux électeurs de se faire une opinion.

Dans une entrevue publiée dans le quotidien Le Soleil jeudi dernier, la ministre du Patrimoine mentionne que s’il y a eu beaucoup de bruit autour de cette série de décisions dans les médias, ce n’est pas le cas sur le terrain. Elle l’a répété en soirée sur les ondes du Réseau de l’information, ajoutant au passage qu’elle remplacerait les programmes abolis (ce qu’elle avait déjà laissé entendre en août). Le tout dans une enveloppe malhabilement vaporeuse qui en dit peu sur les réelles intentions de Mme Verner (sera-t-elle toujours à son poste après les élections?), qui n’a rien cassé comme ministre depuis son élection en 2006.

Mais en même temps, est-ce que possible qu’elle ait raison?

Le préjugé numéro 1 qu’on véhicule depuis maintenant plusieurs semaines touche le train de vie et le statut privilégié des artistes. Bien sûr, pas un mot sur la majorité d’artistes sous le seuil de la pauvreté.

Sauf que les très nombreux “artistes de salon” (il n’y a rien de péjoratif dans ce terme), qui oeuvrent le jour dans des bureaux ou des ateliers pour se rabattre sur la peinture ou la musique le soir venu, ne reçoivent pas de subvention. Il est exagérément populiste de laisser entendre que les artistes n’ont qu’à se trouver une vraie job (faites le tour des blogues de médias traditionnels, ils sont plusieurs), mais en même temps, peut-on en vouloir de le penser à celui qui travaille 40 heures par semaine, qui occupe ses temps libres à composer ou à sculpter et qui ne demanderait probablement pas mieux que de faire ça à l’année?

N’oublions pas que le pouvoir d’achat des consommateurs diminue sans cesse, ce qui les rendra toujours plus mécontents à l’idée de “donner de l’argent pour faire vivre” ceux qu’ils jugent être des privilégiés. Le meilleur exemple à ce sujet vient de cet auditeur qui s’étonnait, quelque part cette semaine dans une tribune radiophonique, que la culture soit si extraordinaire (enfin, selon ce que le monde de la culture avance lui-même) au niveau des retombées économiques alors qu’elle semble si inapte à réinvestir ses dernières afin de sortir les artistes du cercle vicieux des subventions gouvernementales.

Puis, de mémoire, le monsieur mentionnait “qu’en Afrique, on montre des techniques modernes aux agriculteurs car on a compris que c’était le meilleur moyen de les sortir de la misère.” Puis de comparer la culture à l’industrie québécoise des chevaux de course.

La comparaison était (très) boiteuse mais pas dénuée d’intérêt car devant des arguments aussi populistes, il ramène le débat devant le contribuable, celui qui paie. Qu’attendons-nous de nos artistes et que sommes-nous prêts à faire pour les aider? Doit-on les aider perpétuellement

Et si c’est le cas, est-ce que les programmes passés étaient les meilleurs? Peut-on les améliorer?

Et si Josée Verner avait raison?

Update on Alberta events for Liberals

1.  LEILA HOULE, CANDIDATE WESTLOCK-ST. PAUL RIDING
Date:  Saturday, September 20
Time:  1 p.m. to 8 p.m.
Location:  4707-50 Ave St Paul (Main Street)
Special Guest:  Senator Grant Mitchell
Everyone is welcome to join us for food, refreshments and dialogue.

Marg Laberge, Campaign Organizer
Leila Houle Campaign
Campaign Office: 4707-50 Ave St Paul
Mailing Address: 4829-47 Ave
St Paul AB T0A 3A3
T: 866-645-2088 F: 780-645-4145
E: westlockstpaul@gmail.com

2.  JENNIFER POLLACK, CANDIDATE CALGARY WEST RIDING

For Immediate Release
September 18, 2008
Jennifer Pollock Open House
Years ago, Peter Lougheed talked about diversifying Alberta’s economy. Jennifer Pollock believes we need to return to investing in Alberta’s future. “Our children’s health and prosperity depends on the decisions we make today. I am committed to making decisions, not for my political future, but for the future of my children.”

Jennifer Pollock and her campaign team are hosting an open house at the Campaign office at 3827 Bow Trail SW this Saturday, September 20 from 10:00AM to 12:00PM. All interested persons and supporters are invited to attend.
-30-
Contact:
John Santos
403-689-2624
Campaign Manager
Jennifer Pollock Campaign
3825 Bow Tr. SW
T3C 2E8
Ph: 403-457-4735


3.  MARLENE LAMONTAGNE, CANDIDATE CALGARY SW
&
BRAD CARROLL, CANDIDATE CALGARY SE

Date:  Sunday, September 21
Time:  11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.
Location:  11625 Elbow Drive  SW, Calgary

Contact:

Marlene LaMontagne @403-850-1853
Brad Carroll @403-870-3618

And Stéphane Dion is also scheduled to make an appearance:

The Honourable Stéphane Dion will be hosting an Open Town Hall this Monday, September 22 at 7:15pm at the Greenwood Inn & Suites at 3515 26th Street NE.  Don’t miss this opportunity to ask your party leader the questions that are important to you, and calculate your savings benefit under The Green Shift plan.

This is also an excellent opportunity to meet your Southern Alberta Liberal candidates who will be on-hand to listen to your concerns and answer any questions. For more information email diontownhall@gmail.com or call 403-541-1052.

Gerry Ritz, Saskatchewan’s federal voting trends, and the future

Article removed at author’s request.

New from FairVote Canada: OrphanVotes.ca

“Please sir, I want some democracy.”

FairVote Canada launches OrphanVoters.ca
- an online home for abused and abandoned voters

From the September 20th press release:

As our nation braces itself for widespread political devastation from the rapidly approaching electoral storm, Fair Vote Canada today announced the official opening of Canada’s first online shelter for the millions of expected victims.

OrphanVoters.ca will provide an online home for the neglected and abused citizens who will be battered without mercy at the polling stations and, once again, find the doors of Parliament slammed in their faces because their votes elected no one.

Vote for Paul Fréchette or Al-Quaeda will poison your food

Paul Fréchette, the Conservative candidate in Hull-Aylmer, made a fool of himself this week by saying that the Conservative government would take measures to protect Canada’s food supply against poisoning from Al-Quaeda and other terrorist groups.

Aside from saving you from Osama Bin Ladin wrath, his main proposal is to bring an additional 6000 government jobs in Hull, but he is not inclined to explain how this will be accomplished (for more on this topic, read We want Jobs! Or do we?).

He also apparently only answers questions relating to the record and priorities of the Conservative government.  In an interview with a journalist from Radio-Canada, when asked who he though his main opponent was, he replied “I think our time is up and your question is not related to the topics we had agreed upon” and cut short the discussion.

If elected (which is begining to look more and more doubtful), he’ll certainly fit right in with the rest of the Conservative caucus with this kind of approach to the media.

Enfin des pancartes…

Première pancarte du NPD vue à La Prairie

J’ai taquiné le NPD dans mon premier billet pour son manque de visibilité dans La Prairie : c’est maintenant chose faite.

La photo a été prise hier sur le boulevard de Palerme.

Reste maintenant le Parti libéral… dont je n’ai vu aucune présence à l’extérieur de Brossard (en allant faire mon épicerie ce soir, j’ai croisé des pancartes de Mme Mendes).

From an article in Wednesday’s Le Soleil:

Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques : la famille souverainiste divisée: L’ex-députée bloquiste Louise Thibault, élue en 2004 et réélue en 2006, souhaite un nouveau mandat comme «souverainiste indépendante», alors que le Bloc québécois y présente Claude Guimond, l’ex-président de l’Union des producteurs agricoles du Bas-Saint-Laurent, choisi au terme d’une assemblée d’investiture contestée.

Not only will the sitting BQ MP be running as an independent, the Bloc’s riding association was deeply divided in its choice of candidate:

En octobre 2007, quelque 400 militants du Bloc ont choisi Claude Guimond, qui n’aurait devancé son adversaire Christian Gionest que d’une trentaine de voix. M. Guimond jouit de l’appui de l’ex-députée Suzanne Tremblay. Une clientèle fragmentée sur le thème de la souveraineté mais aussi à gauche puisque le néo-démocrate Guy Caron, qui avait récolté un très respectable 10 % des votes au scrutin de 2006, est de nouveau sur les rangs.

This may be closer than what previous patterns would suggest.

Can the Conservatives do even better in the Quebec City region?

For people living outside the Quebec City area, the Conservative breakthrough here might have been the biggest surprise of the 2006 election. But it shouldn’t have been. This region has never been a sovereignist stronghold, nor is it one of leftist activism.

This time around, the trend is for an even weaker Liberal showing – if that’s even mathematically possible – and the Bloc Québécois (like the PQ) is still trying to figure out a way to re-connect with this region. So even though the Conservatives won a couple of these ridings by very slim margins in 2006, it’s hard to see how they could lose them in 2008:

Beauport-Limoilou: In 2006, Conservative Sylvie Bouchard managed to defeat a well-known sitting BQ MP. There’s little reason to believe that she can’t hold it.

Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles: Pretty much the same story as above. Daniel Petit should hold for the Conservatives

Louis-Hébert: A squeaker last time around, but if Luc Harvey could beat the highly-respected Roger Clavet in 2006, he should be able to defend the seat against a BQ newcomer.

Louis-St-Laurent: My home riding. Josée Verner won this with 58% of the vote last time; if there is a safe Conservative seat in Quebec, this is it.

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier: Noted radio host André Arthur won in 2006, and since then he has voted with the Conservatives whenever they have needed his vote. The Conservatives have decided not to run a candidate against Arthur this time, for two reasons. Firstly, there’s the risk that the BQ would benefit from vote-splitting between Artur and the Conservatives. Secondly, the current situation suits everyone concerned: the Conservatives have a vote when they need it, and they don’t have to worry about getting Arthur – whose picture accompanies dictionary definitions of “loose cannon” – to maintain caucus discipline. Arthur should win again handily.

Québec: This is the question mark. The BQ’s Christiane Gagnon won with 42% of the vote of this downtown riding in 2006. Since then, a couple of things have happened. Firstly, there’s the consolidation of the Conservative position in the region. Secondly, there was the ADQ sweep in the 2007 provincial election. Agnès Maltais was able to hold onto the provincial riding of Taschereau for the PQ in 2007, and to the extent that Taschereau and the federal riding of Québec overlap, that suggests that Gagnon has a decent chance of holding out as well. But Québec also overlaps with the provincial ridings of Jean-Lesage and Vanier, both of which went ADQ. Moreover, the Liberals – who won 30% of the vote in 2006 – have botched their nomination process; some federalist voters who were in the habit of voting Liberal may decide to vote Conservative this time. Finally, there’s also the possibility that some progressive BQ voters might drift off to the NDP or the Greens. Christiane Gagnon may hold this seat, but it will be a very close-run thing.

Across the river, Maxime Bernier will easily hold Beauce, despite his demotion from cabinet. The ridings of Lévis-Bellechasse and Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière are in the hardest-of-hard-core ADQ territory; it’s difficult to imagine anyone taking these ridings away from sitting Conservative MPs.

Kingston race finally gets going…

The Kingston and the Islands election race got off to a slow start, with only the Tories having any presence whatsoever for the first week. This week, however, we’ve seen the Liberals and the NDP finally get their candidates nominated, soon followed by their signs on public property. I guess only the Green Party has decided to follow their “green challenge” of keeping signs off public property.

The private lawn sign war is much more interesting, though. Out in the west end suburban area, Abrams (CPC) signs are all over the place. It seems there’s one on every street. The Whig has printed that he has been out canvassing since January, so he certainly can’t be criticized for not working hard. A drive through the Rideau Heights area also shows more Abrams signs than one might expect

The real interesting story, however, is how well the Greens are doing vs. the Liberals downtown. Walton (Green) ran in 2006, so he may have a bit of an organization going, and he seems to be winning the sign war in Sydenham Ward and over much of downtown. The other surprise down this way is how few signs Milliken (Liberal) has up in Sydenham Ward and downtown, an area he usually dominates. Perhaps he is laying low because of the thrashing he has been taking in the local media, as seen here.

Milliken is the clear favourite, winning by 19% last time over the Tories, but one has to wonder with the way things are going nationally, the recent Eastern Ontario numbers from Nanos that put the Tories ahead of the Grits 40/29, and the good start out of the gate for Abrams if we may have more of a race here than ever before. Only time will tell, the real race is only just beginning…

The Sign War

Driving through Ottawa today, I noticed a stark difference between political signs there and those in Gatineau. And, having recently driven through eastern Ontario and virtually all of Quebec, I daresay it may be a provincial thing.

The signs in Ontario are boring.

Quebec has beautiful signs, with the faces of candidates, different colours, slogans, and simply good design. And this extends to all of the parties – Bloc, Conservative, Liberal, and even NDP.

In Ontario, signs are usually only two colours and have nothing but the party logo and the name of the candidate. No picture, rarely a slogan. What gives?

And in Gatineau, virtually all of the signs are wrapped around telephone polls and lamp posts. In Ottawa, they are large signs on the sides of highways and street corners or small ones stuck into front lawns.

Why is there such a great difference between the two locations? I can’t even begin to posit why.

Josée Verner attend votre appel

À Montréal, en couverture du ICI, on peut apercevoir François Lafontaine de Karkwa, Matthieu Beaumont et Catherine Leduc de Tricot Machine ainsi que Ariane Moffat et Yves Lambert. Ces derniers font partie des artistes qui s’opposent aux coupures dans la culture.

Pendant ce temps, à Québec, dans une entrevue accordée au Journal Le Soleil, Josée Verner, affirme que les compressions budgétaires dans le domaine de la culture n’intéressent pas les citoyens. « Ça fait plusieurs activités que je fais et les gens ne m’en parlent pas. Les gens disent : continuez votre bon travail! J’ai eu zéro téléphone. »

Drôle de contraste.

Drôle d’argument aussi de la part de la ministre du Patrimoine du Canada. Le gouvernement du Canada gère-t-il ses priorités selon le nombre d’appels logés aux bureaux de circonscription?

Les Québécois doivent-ils sauver les artistes de la même manière qu’ils le font pour les concurrents de Star Académie? En composant le numéro au bas de leur écran?

Si la mission canadienne dans la province de Kandahar se poursuit malgré que 56% des Canadiens s’y opposent, c’est probablement alors parce que le téléphone de Peter Gordon MacKay ne sonne pas.

Did you say fuck?!

De leur côté, Benoît Brière, Michel Rivard et Stéphane Rousseau répliquent par une vidéo intitulée « Culture en péril » qui se veut une satire des relations entre les artistes et les représentants chargés d’attribuer les subventions fédérales liées à la culture. Rivard y chante un extrait de sa chanson la complainte du phoque en Alaska et les fonctionnaires de répliquer aussitôt : « Did you say fuck?! ». http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=UrATQeLLKX0

Mais au fond, c’est peut-être Verner qui a raison. Zéro téléphone, zéro intérêt.

Ou peut-être est-ce simplement parce que son numéro de téléphone est moins publicisé que celui de Star Académie?

Voici ses coordonnées… juste au cas :

Josée Verner

Téléphone : 418-842-3004
Courriel : info@verner08.ca

Public Space

Coming from a city that did not allow any form of signs on public space; I find the by-laws in Kingston a bit strange. Having election signs on public property makes the campaigns look desperate. It also makes the streets of the city look dirty. Polluting the streets of the city with any political signs should be banned. As an individual currently living in Kingston I don’t understand the reason why signs have to be place on public property in order to create advertising for a candidate.

But let me be clear I think election signs are useless; campaigns spend a lot of money and they waste material that destroys the enviroment in order to create a buzz around the canadiate. Now why can’t candidates and campaigns advertise in the media and create the same effect desired. Michael Gravelle the MPP for Thunder Bay Superior North gave out trees with his signs during the last provincial election now maybe the candidates in Kingston should give a free tree to the public for every sign placed on public property.


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