Peace River is a riding that has worn itself a deep electoral rut, and that rut is in the shape of a capital C.  It doesn’t seem to matter who runs, as long as they run for, as local electors will say flat out and without a trace of humour, the “right” party.  It’s a riding where, as a good friend of mine is known to say, “If you vote, honey, you’re considered progressive”.  And those voters who actually turn out (and that number is increasingly small) mark their “x” in the vast majority for the latest incarnation of the Preston Manning/Stockwell Day/Stephen Harper juggernaut as they do every election, then go home, say their prayers and go to bed.  The likelihood that this election will be any different is low to nonexistent, and the smart money has to be on an easy Conservative win in the riding.

Which is unfortunate.  Because it’s difficult for anyone to argue that Peace River currently has effective representation, or that re-electing the Conservative incumbent Chris Warkentin will do anything to improve the lives of the people he claims to represent.I’m obviously partisan, having run against Warkentin in the last election myself, but the fact is that many local Conservative party members would agree that Warkentin doesn’t represent them. A strong contingent of party faithful threw their support behind surprise independent challenger Bill Given in the last election.  They were upset at the time with the way Warkentin was nominated as the Conservative candidate, and many party insiders felt that his nomination was actually fixed by retiring incumbent Charlie Penson, preventing Grande Prairie councillor Bill Given from having the opportunity to run as a Conservative himself.  Irregularities abounded in the voting process, Given’s supporters claimed, and Warkentin was nominated and confirmed unfairly, apparently for mowing Penson’s lawn enough summers in a row to earn the honour.  Some well-known Conservatives threw their money and support behind Given, even though he insisted he wouldn’t necessarily cross the floor if elected, and they were successful in earning him a second-place finish in the election…which still left him roughly 18,000 votes behind Warkentin.  It’s a mark of how difficult it is to push for change within the riding.  Even Conservatives can’t get a candidate elected if he isn’t branded with the Conservative name.Wrong party, even when it’s no party at all. 

I should point out here that there are very few people who would probably pin the blame for that controversy on Warkentin himself, especially if they have even a basic familiarity with him.  His babyface gamely beams out of every official party photograph with a wet-behind-the-ears innocence that he hasn’t seemed to lose despite his recent (if short) experience in the House.  It’s much easier to picture Warkentin as a freckle-faced kid in a Normal Rockwell painting getting up to nostalgic hijinks, perhaps painting a fence or going to the barbershop, than to picture him in elected office.  The overall impression one gets from Warkentin is still of his youth, and it’s hard to imagine him planning a strategy more devious and political than finding a way to grab Boardwalk in a church-basement game of Monopoly.  He exudes a gosh-darn enthusiasm and an aw-shucks modesty that might be endearing if he wasn’t the person now charged with managing a riding that contains a good chunk of the oil crucial to the Canadian (and North American) economy.  The cynical (and yes, I include myself in that number) might say that Warkentin’s utter lack of confidence, experience, and original thought are the very qualities that make him the perfect Conservative candidate.  If you’re looking for a guy who doesn’t ask questions, who won’t rock the boat, who’ll be quiet (unless you ask him to say something), get the coffee, and fill his extremely safe seat, Warkentin is your man. He’s the perfect sock puppet, a friendly face to soften the often slightly aggressive policies created and advocated by the Harper government (just as one example, a recent pamphlet distributed locally promised that the Conservatives would be hard on crime, and claimed that Liberal policies were so “soft” they practically encouraged criminals to break the law).

This time around, Warkentin is also the incumbent, increasing the likelihood that he’ll win again.  Given hasn’t thrown his hat into the ring for another try yet, and the controversy over Warkentin’s initial nomination seems to have faded away.  The current MP’s only competition for the seat so far comes from the three (interestlingly, all female) candidates running against him: Lilliane Coutu Maisonneuve for the Liberals, Adele Boucher Rymhs for the NDP, and Jennifer Villebrun for the Greens.

Still, with all of them running for the “wrong” parties, it remains to be seen whether any of the new candidates can find a way to jolt the Peace region out of its collective rut.  More likely Warkentin will once again coast smoothly back to Ottawa in the well-worn path of the many Tories who held the seat before him. 

Je ne sais pas pourquoi, mais j’ai l’impression que les prédictions de Democratic Space sont parfois basées sur de mauvaises perceptions ou une analyse incomplete de la situation. Par exemple, il y a quelque chose qui cloche lorsqu’on donne Justin Trudeau gagnant dans Papineau, sans même avancer qu’il s’agira d’une course serrée. Je suis désolé, M. Morrow, mais je crois que vous êtes ceté de la plaque. Lors de la premiere élection dans cette circonscription aux frontières redessinées, en 2004, Pierre Pettigrew est sorti vainqueur avec seulement 400 voix de plus que la candidate du Bloc… une étudiante! Et en 2006, Vivian Barbot a battu Pettigrew par 1000 voix.

Compte tenu de la faiblesse actuelle des libéraux, comment peut-on affirmer sans rire que Justin Trudeau va l’emporter facilement dans cette circonscription face Vivian Barbot? Soyons sérieux, il faut qu’il y ait un point d’interrogation vis-a -vis cette circonscription, pas un logo du PLC! Ce n’est pas parce que certains voient Justin Trudeau dans leur soupe au Canada anglais qu’il en est de même au Québec. Pour vous en convaincre, allez lire les commentaires des lecteurs d’un blogue très populaire quant a la stratégie de campagne du fils Trudeau:

http://blogues.cyberpresse.ca/lagace/?p=70721715

The 2008 election campaign in Canada is like no other. The Conservatives are ahead of their long-time foes, the Liberals, and the social-democratic NDP actually stands a very good chance of forming the Official Opposition, pushing the Liberals into third place. Apart from that, some fundamental aspects are changing.

The battle ahead of October 14 is fierce, and no party is taking anything for granted. This is probably why the tone and language have steadily deteriorated in this campaign. The Conservatives went below the belt first by showing an animated version of Liberal leader Stéphane Dion getting pooped on by a puffin flying across the computer screen. This was followed by a Tory staffer who made insensitive and insulting comments about the father of a dead soldier killed in action in Afghanistan. Now, a cabinet minister, no less, has used the recent listeriosis outbreak in certain food items to wish death on a political opponent and making jokes about the people who have died from the disease in extremely poor taste. The opposition parties are calling for his head, even though he has apologized, yet no one is calling for a certain Liberal MP to resign over his outrageous comments, even though he has so far failed to apologize for any of his equally offensive outbursts.
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So many ridings in Canada depend on local community papers to convey information. Kelowna does have a local station CHBC and a local CBC radio station, both are hunting down stories. Many ridings don’t have a local television station, and in the large markets, ridings overlap with broadcast areas and the competition for space is fierce.  Those are all obvious facts, and I have a spot of gratitude for the fact that our media wars are playground spats compared to the full frontal assaults and sieges of our neighbors to the south.

Kelowna’s subscription daily newspaper did a straight up profile of the Okanagan Lake Country NDP candidate, Tish Lakes.
The closing quote might be termed unfortunate by NDP supporters. To be fair to Tish Lakes, she by all accounts seems to accomplished and earnest.  We shouldn’t expect local pols to craft every sentence to stand alone, much like the teams of big gun media consultants do for national candidates. What Lakes said isn’t a gaffe in context, it’s just a shame that quote closes out the story.

All of the local Kelowna papers, like many across the country, will make an honest effort to give each of the candidates reasonable amounts of coverage. I’m looking forward to the possibility of Stockwell Day, whose riding is Okanagan Coquihalla, across the bridge from Kelowna and within the same media community, giving such an interview. I wonder if the uber-foot in the mouth-gods of the Conservative War Room will allow it to happen.

With today’s polls indicating some slippage in Conservative Party support in Ontario and Quebec, Prime Minister Harper finds himself with another gaffe in his face. Will he be able to shrug this one aside as easily as those that bedevilled the Tories in the first week of the campaign?

Last night, when it came to light that his agriculture minister, Gerry Ritz, had made tasteless remarks about the deaths of Canadians from the listeriosis outbreak, it was obvious that Harper had been handed another hot potato.

In comments in Quebec today, the PM said he accepted the apology Ritz had offered, and rationalized his minister’s bizarre behavior by noting he had been under a lot of stress at the time:

“I think this story is obviously very embarrassing for him, very unfortunate, but should not detract from the good work he has done to get on top and understand this matter.”

As most will know, Mr. Ritz, a Saskatchewan MP, had characterized the crisis as causing the government to suffer death by a thousand cuts, “or should I say cold cuts.” He then went on to add that he hoped the death reported in Prince Edward Island was that of the Liberal agricultural critic, Wayne Easter. Mr. Easter has graciously accepted a personal apology from Mr. Ritz.

It is not uncommon for people in stressful situations to make intemperate comments. However, some will argue that it would have been more forgivable if Mr. Ritz had belabored the executives or the workers of Maple Leaf Foods, or even his own food inspectors for not having caught the outbreak sooner. “I’ll horse-whip those blankety-blank so-and-so’s,” or words to that effect might have been excusable under the circumstances.

But to joke about “cold cuts” and the hoped-for death of a political rival? Some may see this as less a sign of stress and more an indication of an intellectual vacuum in the head of the minister.

Predictably, the Liberals and the NDP have demanded Mr. Ritz resign, or that the PM fire him. Depending on how strong the public uproar becomes, Mr. Harper (or Mr. Ritz) might be forced to re-think their positions.

 Gerry Ritz, MP

The Conservatives had to issue yet another apology today over the remarks of a riding assistant for Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon. The individual had suggested a native protestor had a drinking problem. The apology noted that the comments “do not reflect the views of the Government of Canada.”

Of course, not only the Conservative party has had trouble of this type. Two Liberal candidates, and one each of the NDP and the Greens, have been dropped for things they have said, either during the campaign or in years past.

There seems to be a difference of pattern, however. Last week, the Conservative party communications director was fired for suggesting the comments of a grieving father of a soldier killed in Afghanistan should be seen in light of the fact he was a Liberal supporter. Then there was the “poopin’ puffin” Internet bird dropping excrement on Liberal chieftain Stephane Dion.

Does all this indicate an underlying sense of meanness deep within the heart of the Conservative party? According to surveys, up to a half of all Canadians are worried about what a Harper government might do if it had a majority.

Things like Mr. Ritz’s innate utterings add a further dimension to this apprehension. The more often such incidents come to light, the more likely it is that Danny Williams’ ”Anybody But Conservative” campaign will begin to look like a rational choice.

Prince Edward-Hastings is a riding that you can drive across in 15 minutes, but takes over two hours to drive from North to South. It runs like a knife from the Bancroft area, down to the southern tip of Prince-Edward County, which juts out into the middle of lake Ontario. The major population centre is Belleville (@ 48 000) and includes Bancroft, Tweed, Madoc, and Picton.

At this time, there are three officially nominated candidates in PEH according to the Elections Canada Website. They are incumbent Tory Daryl Kramp, Liberal challenger Ken Cole, and NDP mainstay Michael McMahon, who’s back in the ring to take another swing.

Liberal Ken Cole has so far run a very aggressive campaign. Even as long as a year ago, he was renting signs in Belleville, to try and get some much needed exposure. Nevertheless, he’s fighting an uphill battle against Tory MP Daryl Kramp who turned the riding Blue in 2004, by eking out a narrow victory against Liberal Bruce Knutson subsequent to Lyle Vanclief’s retirement. He increased his margin of victory substantially against Dr. Robert Vaughan in 2006.

If sign wars are any gauge of what is going on, at this point, at least in urban Belleville, where the Liberals strength traditionally lies, it’s about even between Kramp and Cole, with the odd McMahon sign here and there. However, if past results are any indication, the McMahon signs are plentiful in Bancroft, while Kramp signs dominate elsewhere.

Despite Mr. Cole’s efforts, which might have helped him overcome an incumbent’s advantage under different circumstances, my view is that the disastrous national Liberal campaign being run thus far will negate his best efforts, and this riding will stay blue, and by a healthy margin.

It’s still early days yet, and much can happen. Stay tuned!

Peterborough Conservative candidate Dean Del Mastro has been having a few problems with the spelling of the word “re-elect” on some of his signs. Surprisingly, no one in his office noticed until supporters started bringing the signs back. This isn’t the first time Del Mastro has been criticized in the local media for his spelling, last spring he came under fire when a few of his numerous mail-outs where found to contain typos.

This morning I amassed all the election flyers that have come in the mail and noticed something odd about the Conservative flyer.

St. Boniface is traditionally Francophone. The last two Liberal MPs have both been francophone. Raymond Simard is currently the Liberal incumbent. On a provincial level, the current MLA Greg Selinger is anglophone. However he married a francophone who taught him french and is raising his children francophone. His accent is horrible but he puts in the effort which endears him to the francophone community. So with that in mind, you’d think the Conservatives and the NDP would choose candidates that can at least speak French.

The NDP has, in a way. Matt Schaubreck went through French Immersion. Admittedly, I haven’t received a flyer from the NDP yet, but I went to school with him. Shelley Glover of the Conservatives appears to be an anglophone. The flyer that was dropped in my mailbox(BEFORE the election was called!) doesn’t mention whether or not she speaks French, but makes a big thing of her work the Winnipeg Police Service.

Francophones will always want someone who understands their need to preserve their language and culture, and many will vote based on the candidates langue maternelle. If the Conservatives really wanted to win St. Boniface, they would have put an obvious francophone in the race.

The race in Trinity-Spadina is off. This is likely the most competitive riding in central Toronto. The race this time features incumbent Olivia Chow (NDP) (spouse of Jack Layton), Liberal Christine Innes (wife of Tony Ianno), Christine McGirr (Conservative) and Stephen LaFrenie (Greens).

Without a doubt this is a two-way race between the NDP and Liberals. If the Liberals do well nationally, Innes should be able to win fairly easily. Otherwise, this one will be a nailbiter like it always is.

The only word I’ve gotten from the ground has been that some NDP voters were dissapointed with Layton’s attempts to block Elizabeth May from the debates. There may be a broader backlash to this as NDP numbers have slipped recently in several polls. Layton came across as a typical politician, attempting to shirt-circuit democracy in favour of his personal ambition.

The first week of the campaign here has been rather slow, with not very many people interested in the election.  The consensus of the local media: nothing is going to change, the local election is going to be a snoozer.

Jay Hill and the Conservatives have put up some signs.

Betty Bekkering and the New Democrats have been doing some canvasing of the riding.

The Liberals and the Greens have been scambling to find candidates (they are Lindsay Gidney and Hilary Crowley respectively.)

There are three words that summarize the political history of Prince George – Peace River:

Conservative Safe Seat

Not since 1972 has there been been a non-Progressive Conservative/Reform/Alliance/Conservative elected to this riding. It was the Liberal, Robert Borrie, elected 1968-1972 and I beleive he had two things going for him: 1) apprently he was known as a very nice guy; and 2) He was elected when Pierre Trudeau swept the nation.

Since then, Prince George -  Peace River has been so stable that Mugabe would be jealous. In fact, since 1972 there have been two people serving as MP: Frank Oberle from 1972 to 1993 and Jay Hill from 1993 to Present.

Now, let’s talk about geography. Prince George – Peace River is very big. It is easily just under 1/3 of the third largest province in Canada. We can split the riding into three parts: Prince George, Fraser-Fort George, and the Peace River. (There is a little map of the riding at the bottom of the post).

Prince George is the urban part of the riding, located in the southern end. It consists of Northern Prince George (Southern Prince George is part of Cariboo-Prince George). Prince George focuses on two things: forest products processing and regional services (such as the university, hospital, and shopping).

Fraser-Fort is the Southern half of the riding surrounding Prince George. Like Prince George, it’s main economic driver is the forest industry, and currently, the forest industry is suffering, with plants reducing shifts or closing down completely.

Peace River is the Northern half of the riding. Traditionally, its economic driver has been focused on agriculture; however, the energy sector as of late has made the region grow.

Hello Everybody. My name is Northern BC Dipper, and I run a blog on politics quite originally named Northern BC Dipper. This year, I shall covering my home riding, Prince George – Peace River.

As you might have already guessed, I am a little biased, as I happen to be a New Democrat partisan hack. Therefore, I just might happen to focus a little more on them.