Elizabeth May and the Green Party of Canada have inspired people from across Canada to think about fairness, both in terms of having democratic debates and also on a related issue.

Had it not been for our first past the post system, which deprived Greens of Members in Parliament in 2006, there would have been no debate about the debates.

However, the attempts by Jack Layton, Steven Harper and to some extent Gilles Duceppe, to exclude May from the debates have helped make how voters elect their representatives a possible emerging election issue.

Indeed, electoral reform should be viewed as THE most pressing issue.Not the environment. Not poverty. Not the healthcare system. Not crime, gangs, or violence against women. Not abortion. Not the war in Afghanistan or the US invasion of Iraq and their imminent attack on Iran. Not the sabre rattling between the US and Russia.

While no one would claim that these issues aren’t important, no matter on which side you stand, the fact of the matter is they won’t get addressed by any party or politician. Not in any substantive, meaningful way.Not unless something fundamental changes in our eroding democracy.

I say this as a woman and activist whose employment income is limited to below poverty levels by disability and who is passionate about peace, the environment, food and housing security, a woman’s right to decide what happens to her body, and the development and sustainability of local economies.

The most pressing issue for the upcoming federal election and in next year’s BC election and all future elections until it has been addressed is democratic and electoral reform.

Without the proportional representation of the voters’ preference matched to the number of Members in Parliament and our provincial legislatures, democracy in Canada will continue to be a sham.Without true democratic representation, issues of importance to voters, rather than issues of importance to those in power and their corporate backers, will continue to be ignored.

Recovering our democracy is the most urgent issue facing the people of Canada.

So next time you nab a politician’s attention, ask him or her this question: ”Upon being elected, will you and your party take immediate steps to reform our electoral system?”

For complete information about electoral reform and what you can do to bring reform to the forefront of this election, visit FairVote Canada.

I have toured the riding of Barrie and in the Orillia area. As far as I can see be the sign war, the battles in this area is between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The NDP and Greens may make some head way but that is unlikely. The last time the NDP won in this area was at the provincial level in 1990.

I would categorize Barrie right now as too-close-to-call. The Liberals can win if they remind voters of the Conservative candidate’s shameless self-promotion using taxpayers money with massive mailings which were blatantly partisan. If the national Liberal campaign can can more agressive then this may happen here in Barrie.

As a way of making me learn more about the ridings in my home province, I am going to commit to writing a profile of each one over the course of the election campaign. I know a fair bit about the ridings here in NS, but in order to write an in depth report, I will need to dig further and pay attention to the local media. That being said, there is one riding that I can safely profile right now and that is my home riding of South Shore-St. Margaret’s, probably the most interesting riding in the province (unless you’re the media).

South Shore-St. Margaret’s spans both rural and suburbans areas of Nova Scotia. Stretching from the furthest shores of very rural Shelburne County to the edges of Halifax and indeed into the Halifax Regional Municipality. Another interesting divide in this riding is the North-South divide. With most of the more populated areas and towns being located on the coast, this riding is often said to be divided by it’s major highway, the 103. North of the 103 has traditionally been Tory, while the Liberals and NDP (and Tories as well) find much of their support South of the 103.

The last three elections have seen the vote split go three ways with the incumbent, Gerald Keddy, winning with mid-30’s. The NDP managed to swing a second place finish (barely) in 2006, on the back of a Liberal candidate that while promising, just wasn’t ready for the big time. In 2008, the Tory and NDP are back with their 2006 candidates while the Liberals have put up a very strong force in Dr. Bill Smith. A chiropractor in both Bridgewater and Shelburne, Dr. Smith has roots in the two areas that could make much of the difference for the Liberal Party in this riding. With the Atlantic Accord fiasco, Gerald Keddy might very well be in for the fight of his life. Turning his back on his riding won him much backlash and bitterness is lingering. The question is, can one of the two other parties capitalize enough to overtake him. If the vote continues to split between Liberals and NDPers, it could be enough for Keddy to slip through, even with low 30’s. However, if one of the two other parties can win over enough support, they could easily squeek out a victory and sheer off one more Tory in Atlantic Canada.

This local election in Newmarket-Aurora will likely be a hard fought race between the Liberal and Conservative candidates.

First time candidate and former Mayor of Aurora, Tim Jones, will run for the Liberals. He takes over from Liberal MP Belinda Stronach who decided to leave politics and not seek re-election. He has a lot of experience and is well know locally.

Lois Brown, business owner, will run again for the Conservatives. She ran in the last election, placing second after Belinda Stronach. With Ms. Stronach (who benefited from her well-known status and strong following) now gone and solid showing of Conservative support in the polls, Ms. Brown hopes to win this electoral district. Judging by the number of lawn signs, she is definitely moving in that direction.

From what I’ve read, Mike Seaward, former trade unionist, will run again for the NDP after representing the party in the last provincial election.

Glenn Hubbers, professional engineer and project manager, runs again for the Greens. He hopes to build on the Greens rise in popularity as well as the recent provincial election where Green candidate John McRogers won 9% of the vote. He placed third after the NDP. This time around, the Green campaign hopes to capture 10-15% of the vote. This would be around 3 times the vote obtained back in the 2006 election.

At the moment this looks to be a tight race and will be interesting to see who pulls through to win the riding.

Looking at the riding to the north, York-Simcoe, the race is most certain. This large rural riding is prime Conservative territory. Peter Van Loan, the Conservative candidate as well as Cabinet minister, who won the last two Federal elections, is expected to win here with ease. Judith Moses is running for the Liberals. She has a lot of political experience working with government ministers and within the Privy Council. John Dewar will run again for the Greens. Like Mr. Hubbers, he’s an excellent green candidate and should do well. Also, Sylvia Gerl will run again for the NDP.

I expect that the race in Etobicoke Lakeshore will capture the interest of the national media as it has in the past two elections.

For the Liberals – the incumbent MP, Michael Ignatieff, runner-up in the most recent Liberal leadership contest. In the 2006 election, there was a number of upset people in the riding due to Mr. Ignatieff being parachuted in over the wishes of the riding assocation. There was also a lot of concern in the riding (and nationally for the leadership convention) about his absence from Canada. My sense is that this animosity has subsided. I don’t get the sense there’s much of a “oust Ignatieff” feeling in the riding. At some level, one might conclude the Liberals should hold this riding.

For the Conservatives – Patrick Boyer. Mr. Boyer was the MP in this riding during the Mulroney years. While I did not live in the riding at the time, people who did says he was quite popular, even as Mr. Mulroney’s approval faded. He was narrowly defeated in the 1993 election. In both the 2004 and 2006 elections, the Conservatives worked hard to try and make this the breakthrough riding in Toronto, yet the Liberals won it fairly easily.

As for the NDP and Green Parties (and other candidates) I don’t expect they will be much of a factor here. The NDP did win here in the Trudeau years and won provincially in the Rae years, but that’s ancient history now. I can’t imagine a scenario that would result in neither Ignatieff or Boyer winning, but….

I know lawn signs are pretty bad indicator, but for those interested, the Liberals are far ahead of Conservatives. I’ve seen nothing from the rest.

Let’s see how this race develops.

Ever get the sense we’re watching a hockey game in slow motion?

September 6: The Tories are in minority territory! A majority is a long way off!

September 13: The Tories are in majority territory! Big lead in three polls! This could be the end of Stéphane Dion!

September 15: The Tory lead is narrowing! A gap has opened up, says Liberal strategist!

Good grief. I can’t wait for Coach’s Corner.

Le maire de Brossard, Jean-Marc Pelletier, a proposé la semaine dernière la construction d’un tunnel à deux étages (le premier pour le prolongement du réseau de métro, le second pour les voitures) sous le fleuve Saint-Laurent entre l’île de Montréal et sa localité. Estimant le coût de son projet à 1,2 milliard de dollars (et financé en partie par le secteur privé), M. Pelletier profite ainsi de la campagne électorale pour mettre de la pression sur les candidats dans Brossard-La Prairie et, plus globalement, amener les partis politiques à parler de transport.

Puis Radio-Canada nous apprend aujourd’hui que le pont Champlain est aussi mal en point qu’il en a l’air.

Parce que le transport est un sujet sensible pour les citoyens de la couronne métropolitaine. Les jours passent et mettent en relief la désuétude de nos infrastructures. Le pont Champlain fait peur, le pont Mercier fait encore plus peur, le pont Victoria est un cauchemar au niveau des accès…

L’idée du maire de Brossard est bien belle en théorie mais se heurte dans un premier temps à des récifs… politiques. Si l’idée d’améliorer la fluidité dans l’axe Montréal-Rive-Sud est électoralement rentable, elle l’est moins lorsqu’on la conjugue avec le spectre… de la 30!

Combien d’élections provinciales et fédérales se sont jouées sur cette cinquantaine de kilomètres à construire entre Vaudreuil-Soulanges et Candiac? Tellement que même si des échangeurs sont déjà construits dans la partie Est du tracé, les gens doutent encore de sa réalisation.

Allez donc leur parler de lien sous-fluvial…

Puis il y a les enjeux environnementaux. Si l’idée de diminuer la circulation avec le métro peut êre perçue comme bonne, comment expliquer la venue de nouvelles voies routières qui s’ajouteront à celles du pont Champlain? Le débit journalier devrait logiquement augmenter. Et de toute façon, l’ajout de kilomètres de bitume n’est généralement pas ami avec le concept de développement durable.

L’idée d’aller remuer le sol sous le fleuve risque également d’alerter plusieurs groupes écologistes.

Enfin, il y a la question des coûts. Le cynisme de la population envers la classe politique vient notamment de l’incapacité de cette dernière à chiffrer rigoureusement ses projets.

Et le pont actuel?

Suite à l’effondrement du viaduc de la Concorde à Laval en 2006, le ministre fédéral des Transports, Lawrence Cannon, avait mentionné lors d’un point de presse que les infrastructures fédérales, dont le pont Champlain, étaient sécuritaires.

Pourtant, ce n’était pas le cas. Radio-Canada nous apprend que quelques jours seulement avant l’effondrement de Laval, un rapport déposé par la firme d’ingénieurs Genivar était moins jovialiste sur l’état du pont bâti en 1957.

Largement surchargé comparativement à ce qu’il a étudié à l’époque, le pont Champlain s’est imposé comme la “meilleure” solution de contournement de Montréal pour le transport routier. Il n’a pas été conçu pour ça, ni modifié pour tenir compte de cette réalité.

Un peu avant le déclenchement des élections actuelles, le ministre Cannon avait annoncé que la structure actuelle serait remplacée pour des raisons économiques (200 millions sur dix ans pour le maintenir dans son état actuel semble effectivement être une dépense discutable). Mais la politique étant ce qu’elle est, le projet est de nouveau sur la glace.

Nous avons demandé aujourd’hui aux cinq grands partis leur opinion sur la question du transport entre la rive-sud et Montréal. Aucun n’a répondu à la demande formulée par courriel à leur représentant dans le comté de Brossard-La Prairie, où se situe le pont Champlain.

Les pancartes conservatrices sont finalement apparuent dans le nord de la circonscription. Le NPD tant qu’à lui n’a des affiches que dans le grand “Tremblant”, lieu d’origine du candidat. Il est cependant clair que les machines de ces deux partis sont moins nombreuses que celles du Bloc Québécois et du Libéral.

Fait intéressant pour les amateurs de statistique; Le Bloc Québécois a toujours obtenu la majorité des votes dans les limites actuelles de la circonscription. La plus faible majorité du parti fut d’un peu moins de 7000 voix lors de l’élection catastrophique pour le Bloc de 2000.

Il est clair en tout cas que même Élections Canada n’avait pas prévu ce déclenchement d’élection puisque les bureaux de la Directrice du scrutin dans la circonscription ne sont pleinement fonctionnels avec téléphones et tout que depuis dimanche le 14 septembre soit une semaine après le déclenchement!

À suivre…

This is my first post on DemocraticSPACE.com, thanks for the opportunity to chime in. You can catch the rest of my misdirected ramblings here.

First off, kudos to the contributors who raced me here with their own insightful early impressions of the campaign in the Atlantic provinces. Since the Globe and Mail won’t bother, and the Hill Times seems way off the mark (Random-Burin-St. George’s??? come on!!!), I’ll start by listing the ten ridings that I think are worth watching in the region. I’ll let others predict winners and losers, but here’s a rundown of the ten I’m keeping an eye on this time around.

New Brunswick

Fredericton
A longtime Tory stronghold, Liberal Andy Scott posted an impressive string of electoral victories in five elections from 1993 through 2006. His successor, David Innes, will have his hands full holding this riding for the Liberals. Scott won the riding through his broad centrist appeal, and an uncanny ability to keep social progressives in the Liberal fold. The consolidation of conservative votes on the right, and the mixed blessing of the election of a provincial Liberal administration in the capital city loom large. One intangible element which may play to Innes’s favour is the disappearance of the NDP from the provincial scene. Even though their only MLA was from Saint John, the fact that the party has had no presence in the legislature, nor accompanying party resources, will probably hinder their organizational efforts in the city. If this race becomes tight, it may make the difference.

Madawaska Restigouche
You have to include this riding in any list of ones to watch simply by virtue of the fact that it’s been so close in the past. Incumbent Liberal MP Jean-Claude D’Amours can hold this riding if he can increase his support in his hometown of Edmundston and the surrounding area. In 2006, despite winning the riding, he lost most polls in the areas closest to home, securing victory instead by winning big in the Campbelton area. This is an interesting riding to watch because it is one of the few francophone areas of the province with a longstanding Tory tradition. A large chink of the current riding falls within the old boundaries of Mulroney-era cabinet heavyweight Bernard Valcourt. Having come so close in the last election, the Conservatives will be focusing much of their efforts on this riding.

PEI

Cardigan
20-year veteran Liberal MP Lawrence MacAulay has had his ups and downs but always seems to pull out a victory in the end. The Cardigan riding was heavily targeted by the Tories in the last two elections, and in response, MacAulay actually increased his majority. MacAulay first won the riding in 1988 by defeating Pat Binns, who would later become PEI’s Premier. It had been widely speculated that Binns would be Stephen Harper’s candidate, but he was appointed Ambassador to Ireland. While it seems the Tories are now looking to the other side of the Island, where Egmont MP Joe McGuire has retired from politics, history shows Cardigan as consistently the closest race to watch. I’m not sure it will be this time, but if the Conservatives start seeing rosy polling numbers in Atlantic Canada down the homestretch, they’ll be eying this one in the campaign’s later stages. Not to be forgotten is that Peter MacKay has a lot riding on this. Once again, he’s been tasked with the political responsibility of finding a winning candidate and a winnable riding.

Nova Scotia

Halifax
In the past two years this riding has become a veritable game of musical chairs. It started when provincial Tory heavyweight and John Hamm cabinet minister Jane Purves dropped her nomination bid in protest against Stephen Harper’s backtracking on his Equalization commitment. A few months later the nominated Liberal candidate, Martin MacKinnon, dropped out. Then another Tory candidacy ended before it could get off the ground. Then Alexis McDonald, the NDP’s heir apparent, lost the nomination. This is ground zero of the NDP strength in Atlantic Canada, and it will take a weird set of circumstances to see it switch. But if Alexa McDonough only won by a whisker in 2000 and 2004, then 2008 just might be the year. The biggest story of all in this riding may be who isn’t running. If the Green Party finishes this campaign without gaining a seat, Elizabeth May’s party will rue the day they decided not to contest this one.

Central Nova
There are a lot of free agent voters in this riding. The NDP can’t possibly attain the numbers of the last campaign, the Liberals aren’t running a candidate, and the Green Party Leader is squaring off against Peter MacKay. She has her work cut out for her. Being on the national stage will help, but she’s got a lot of doors to knock on in the meantime.

South Shore – St. Margaret’s
If the Liberals are to make any gains in the Maritimes, this is probably where they’ll start. While Keddy has a few things going for him, breaking ranks with the Tories in the past on issues like gay marriage. Gerald Keddy now faces some backlash for Harper’s Equalization follies, and his weak response. Keddy’s held this seat comfortably in the past, and benefited from some increased NDP votes of late, but this time he faces a Liberal opponent in Bill Smith who has been on the campaign trail for months and carries significant support from his recent provincial bid as an NDP candidate. If Smith can win the Eastern part of the riding, while rebuilding some of the old Liberal areas in the southernmost county, he just might unseat Keddy.

West Nova
Always a nail biter… Even in 1997, when we Liberals were getting our collective a** handed to us on election night, this riding wasn’t called until well after midnight. And it’s been a roller coaster ever since. Robert Thibault is the first MP in a long, long time to win successive elections in this riding, but they’ve been close. Running against former provincial cabinet minister Greg Kerr, he’ll have his hands full again. But he had his hands full last time, and the time before…

Newfoundland & Labrador

Let’s save the most entertaining for last, shall we?

St. John’s East
The best thing about this riding, is that this election will finally be about something other than charitable vote-buying with Norm Doyle’s provincial pension. The favourite to replace him is Jack Harris, the former provincial NDP Leader who held the job for most of the past decade (albeit as a part-time job). He briefly held the seat federally after winning a by-election in 1987. He’s also a former law partner of Premier Danny Williams, whose future public endorsement is the worst-kept secret in the province. Williams’ ABC campaign may dominate the media in St. John’s, but it will have little impact on the eventual outcome. That being said, this federal riding was a safe PC seat for a long time, but has never really been a safe riding for the latest iteration of the Conservative Party. Craig Westcott will do a capable job of rebutting Premier Williams’ more juvenile interventions, but the only party with a shot at catching the NDP in this seat is probably the Liberals. But to do that they’d need a strong candidate…

Avalon
The riding is a bit of a geographic anomaly, created out of bits and pieces of the former rural portions of the St. John’s ridings, westward and encompassing the rest of the Avalon Peninsula. (Most of) the riding has been represented by a string of recent Liberal federal ministers; Mifflin, Tobin, and Efford. It’s a wonder it isn’t held by a minister now. One of the biggest questions on the minds of Harper loyalists in Ottawa is why he didn’t put Fabian Manning in cabinet during the last shuffle, given the extreme likelihood that he would be the only incumbent re-offering. The Tories will throw everything they have at this seat, but the lack of any NDP presence, and the never-ending barrage of ABC media follies might give newcomer Scott Andrews a real shot at regaining this one for the Liberals.

St. John’s South – Mt. Pearl
Traditionally, the safest Tory seat east of Alberta. Well maybe. Or maybe not. But its demographics are changing. A much more urban and diverse community than it was in the days that John Crosbie held the seat and won it with massive majorities. The biggest impact of the ABC campaign waged by Williams will be the resulting absence of campaign volunteers for the local Conservatives. Liberal Siobhan Coady has a team that’s well-rehearsed, having contested the riding twice already. Danny’s tirades may help in the short term, but what’s really playing in Coady’s favour is the absence of former NDP candidate Peg Norman, whose impressive third place finishes denied Coady the seat in 2004. If the Liberals make gains in the Newfoundland and Labrador, they’ll start right here. The riding is not without its own share of entertainment value, however…

One week into this election, the Libertarian war machine is gearing up! Duck your heads and run for cover folks.

I got this message on my Facebook account, curtsey of the Libertarian Party group :

Act Now! Run for the Libertarian Party of Canada

There are still a few days left to run as a candidate for the Libertarian Party of Canada! The recruitment committee is busy!

Don’t put it off! If you want to run, fax or email a scanned copy of your membership form to info@libertarian.ca – mailing your membership fee is fine. Contact info@libertarian.ca and let them know you would like to run as a candidate. Ask them if your own riding or a nearby electoral district is available.

Membership forms are here: http://libertarian.ca/english/libertarian-party-join.html – sign as a voting member

The nomination deadline for all candidates to see their local returning officer is September 22: you need a $1000 deposit, 100+ signatures, an official agent (and auditor), and a letter from party leader. These are all obstacles that need some time to resolve. Waiting until the 20th is pushing it. The LPC may be able to help you find an official agent but please see if you can find someone to assist you.

P.S. Recent news about the Libertarian Party of Canada
http://westernstandard.blogs.com/shotgun/2008/09/it-takes-courag.html

Meanwhile, on the Libertarian Party frontpage, Phil Bender is still running in the by-election for Guelph.

This is sooooo sad …

Looking at the provincial and federal results for the riding of Willowdale, you’ll see two different stories.  Most recently in the March 2006 by-election, Martha Hall Findlay – without incumbency and with a sitting Conservative government — won the riding crushing her rivals with an impressive 59.3% of the vote.  The second place Conservative candidate was almost 30 percentage points behind.  It will be very difficult for any party to beat the now incumbent Liberal, however, it will be interesting to see whether these extraordinary results can be repeated during a general election or if they are an aberration as a result of the by-election call.  Barring a Harper landslide — make that an avalanche — expect Willowdale to stay Liberal.  The Provincial numbers for the riding, however, paint a  contrasting picture.  They show the Conservatives consistently competitive with the Liberals.  Of the last six elections, the provincial Progressive Conservative candidates have won three with the Liberals winning the others.  So what explains this disconnect?

A small portion can be explained by the lack of vote splitting.  The Greens and the NDP are weak in the riding, especially at the Federal level.  In the recent by-election, these parties garnered just over 10% of the vote combined, which is less than the provincial results from the last election and far below what these two parties poll at the Federal level.  Without a significant left-wing vote split, the Liberals are about 10-15% higher than they might otherwise be.

Still, vote splitting only explains a portion of the consistently big Liberal wins in Willowdale.  Another factor is certainly name recognition and MP performance.  Hall Findaly was a Liberal leadership contender and, as a result, commanded considerable media attention during her campaign.  This gave her a small advantage when it came to the by-election.  It is former MP Jim Peterson, however, who has bragging rights to Willowdale as a safe Liberal seat.  After defeat in his bid for re-election in 1984, Jim Peterson was returned in 1988 (during the time his brother happened to be Premier of Ontario).  He held the riding in every election after that and retired after winning the 2006 election.  Peterson was well liked in the riding and a fixture in Willowdale.  At times, people may have not liked Liberal PMs Jean Chretien or Paul Martin but no one had an unkind word for Jim.  During his time, he served as a Parliamentary Secretary and a Cabinet Minister.  To his credit, his staff was also very good at community outreach especially to the Chinese and Persian populations which make up a significant portion of the riding.  To top it off, money also trickled into the riding during Peterson’s tenure when the Liberals held government and he was always there to take credit for the largess.

Lastly and most importantly, it could be argued that Willowdale is, at best, a “Red Tory” riding.  People in this urban area tend to be fiscally moderate but socially liberal.  I would dub this voting block “Martin Liberals” or (former Ontario Premier) “Harris Tories.”  At the Provincial level, the Conservatives have had repeated success but former Willowdale MPPs Charles Harnick and David Young both came from the so-called progressive side of their Party.  Harper, rightly or not, is seen as not being of the same ilk.  Since social policy is more the domain of the Federal government, there remains a trust issue for the Harper led Conservatives to overcome.  Despite polls pointing to another Conservative government (at this point perhaps a majority), voters in Willowdale remain with the Liberals because they need assurance that the social fabric of the country will not be changed under a Harper regime.  Until then expect more of the same from north central Toronto.

Il semble qu’un des enjeux les plus importants de l’élection sera l’environnement, avec quatre des cinq principaux partis qui souhaitent réduire sensiblement les émissions de gaz à effet de serre dans un avenir rapproché. Depuis quelques semaines, j’entends fréquemment parler du fait qu’on assiste enfin à une élection où le débat gauche-droite a pris la place de l’éternel débat sur l’unité nationale.

À mon avis, nous n’assistons pas à un débat gauche-droite au sens traditionnel du terme. Le PLC, au pouvoir pendant treize ans, a transformé les déficits budgétaires du gouvernement fédéral en surplus en sabrant notamment dans les transferts aux provinces en matière de santé et de programmes sociaux et en réduisant l’accès à l’assurance-emploi. Il a utilisé les surplus budgétaires pour réduire la dette et diminuer les impôts. Encore aujourd’hui, rien ne laisse croire qu’un PLC au pouvoir agirait bien différemment du Parti Conservateur sur ce plan. J’ai entendu bien peu de protestations de la part des libéraux en ce qui a trait aux réductions massives d’impôt accordées par les conservateurs et à la baisse de 2% de la TPS, qui font perdre au gouvernement des milliards en revenus à chaque année (10 milliards uniquement pour la TPS!)qui pourraient être réinvestis dans les programmes sociaux et les transferts fédéraux.

Non, nous voilà maintenant dans un débat véritablement post-moderne, au sens où l’entend le politologue américain Ronald Inglehart dans Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic, and Political Change in 43 societies (1997). Un débat où les clivages sur les questions environnementales et culturelles remplace le traditionnel débat gauche-droite sur la propriété des moyens de production et la répartition de la richesse. De là l’émergence du Parti Vert, qu’on situe difficilement sur le spectre gauche-droite (bien qu’on l’associe généralement davantage à la gauche, à tort ou à raison). Le seul problème avec le système électoral canadien, c’est qu’une majorité de citoyens voteront le 14 octobre pour des partis favorables à la protection de l’environnement, mais que le parti qui prendra le pouvoir risque fort bien d’être celui qui se retrouve seul à l’autre bout du nouveau spectre politique.

DemocraticSPACE’s Update #3 (15 Sept) shows the Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority, having lost a little ground in the last couple days. DemocraticSPACE currently projects the Conservatives with 145 seats on 36.9% support, the Liberals well behind at 89 seats and 26.6%, the NDP at 30 seats and 17.2%, the Greens at 0 seats and 10.1%, and the Bloc at 42 seats and 8.1% (32.9% in Quebec). See http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2008 for complete details, including regional breakdowns and riding-by-riding projections.

My overwhelming first impression is that which is generated by lawn signs. If that is any indication, then it appears that things look good for Olivia Chow to keep this riding in NDP hands. In the past week I’ve seen a few Christine Innes signs, but the NDP definitely seemed to have the jump on everyone else. The Conservatives are invisible in this riding (as one might expect for downtown Toronto) and it appears that their riding association has not updated its website since 2005(!) The Green Party is nearly as invisible as the Conservatives to the casual follower of local politics. They do at least have a nominated candidate in Stephen LaFrenie, it remains to be seen if he will obtain much visibility here. On the surface, this riding looks like it’s the NDP’s to lose.

Ça semble être le slogan principal de Jean-Pierre Blackburn, dans Jonquière-Alma, même si on ne le voit pas sur ses affiches électorales. Une déclaration dans ce sens dans le Progrès-Dimanche, le principal hebdo de la région, en fin de semaine (malheureusement, il n’y a pas de version en ligne).

Robert Bouchard, député bloquiste sortant dans Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, se dit scandalisé d’une telle attitude et il accuse Blackburn de vouloir nous ramener à l’époque du Duplessis ou encore aux méthodes de Gagliano. Faut dire qu’il a du pain sur la planche, s’il veut encore convaincre les électeurs d’élire un député d’opposition. “Le comté de Chicoutimi – Le Fjord a reçu 66 % des subventions de DEC de 2004 à 2007 et ce même avec un député dans l’opposition. La seule raison qui explique cette excellente position est la qualité des projets présentés par les entrepreneurs d’ici. dit-il dans son communiqué de presse.”

Ça n’a pas beaucoup impressionné Jean Tremblay, le maire de Ville Saguenay. Ce matin, c’est lui qui répond à Bouchard. Sur son ton vitriolico-paternaliste habituel il déclare:

“Une chose est certaine, peu importe leur couleur et leur parti, des députés de l’opposition ne sont pas capables, malgré tous leurs efforts, de faire débloquer des dossiers majeurs. Des députés d’opposition, ça ne sert souvent pas à grand-chose”.

C’est-y assez clair: VOTEZ DU BON BORD!

Ce n’est pas un appui officiel au PC. Mais ce n’est pas nécessaire d’avoir un doctorat en science politique pour comprendre que le maire ne détesterait pas que Bouchard ne soit pas réélu.

Les affiches

Les Conservateurs semblent gagner la bataille, dans Jonquière du moins. Seulement quelques affiches du Bloq, alors que celles du PC sont partout, même si c’est encore plutôt discret. Les libéraux n’ont garni aucun poteau à date. Les Verts et le NPD n’ont même pas encore de candidat.

Les poètes voteront-ils “du bond bord”?

Le 13 septembre, lors d’une soirée de poésie le ton était plutôt politique. Harper était à l’honneur bien évidemment. S’il n’en tenait qu’à eux, je crois Blackburn “prendrait l’bord”.

We’re beginning to see more signs that the polls in this election, as well as the economy, are pretty fragile. I’ve already pointed out some of the inconsistencies in the polling figures we’re being given. Now, Harris/Decima is beginning to backtrack on the big lead they gave the Tories last week.

After a week of rolling polls by H/D that gave the Conservatives a growing lead, they now say the Tory edge has been cut by three points, down from 41 to 38 per cent. Liberals are up from 24 to 27 per cent, and the NDP is up  one point, to 16. The Greens and the Bloc are flat at nine and eight, respectively.

This is more in line with what Nik Nanos (the most accurate pollster, for my money) had been saying. He’s got the Tories up by six points, 37 to 31 per cent.

It’ll be interesting to see if a series of tough Liberal ad attack ads like this one, will help Dion cut further into the reported Conservative lead.

Elizabeth May got a lot of media exposure over the weekend, so we should look for an uptick in Green figures in coming days.

Her “green shift” would put a $50 a ton carbon tax on pollution, compared to the $10 proposed by Stephane Dion. But she’s impressively articulate in pointing out that the Green scheme would mean $50 billion in tax reductions for ordinary Canadians, with the loss made up by increased taxes on greenhouse gas-emitting companies.

Today, all the party leaders were roiled a bit by the alarming financial news out of the States. More evidence that the laissez faire open market approach favored by the Republicans (and the Conservatives) inevitably brings on excess and collapse. Lehman Brothers and Merill Lynch are the latest casualties of the sub-prime mortgage fiasco, and the Toronto market dropped another 488 points today.

Prime Minister Harper tried to put a brave face on it. But he didn’t sound all that optimistic: ““I don’t think the atmosphere should turn to one of complete doom and gloom. I wouldn’t throw in the towel on any of this quite yet.”

If the election turns into a battle of the economy, who’ll come off looking the best able to handle tough times?

There’s an old Liberal war cry — “Tory times are tough times.” I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Liberals and the Dippers play some variation of this theme in the days ahead.

Question of the Week: No serious damages from Hurricane Ike to the Gulf refineries. Oil is down another $5 a barrel. When can we expect gasoline prices to drop?

So, an Angus Reid poll on Saturday had the Greens at 26% in BC, which, I would suspect, makes Blair Wilson competitive in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast – I’m not saying it’s an outlier, but… I would never make any predictions based on one poll (a Harris-Decima pole puts them at 8% today), but if the number holds up I may have to change my tune a bit. Nothing is ever impossible in contrarian British Columbia. Needless to say, I’ll get back to it in the coming days. I was going to write about the North Shore candidates. I still will, but it requires research and therefore time, which I don’t have, so in the meantime I’m going to talk about election signs on the North Shore.

Election signs are funny things, in so far as most everyone considers them, at best, an eyesore. Yet, come an election, everyone goes out driving to see who has more up, some people I know base their votes on the number of signs, colour of signs and aesthetic appeal of signs. Signs can tell us something about an election. Throughout a campaign one can tell the organization level of the candidates on their ability to get signs up and maintain them. Signs can even indicate support in a riding, if you’re careful to only acknowledge those signs on private property. Publicly displayed signs offer little more insight than a spitting contest. That said, after a week of the campaign what can we say about signs on the North Shore.

NDP – There are none (that’s not exactly true, I saw one Jack Layton bag sign hiding under a Conservative 4×4 – though location counts, across from the Wheat Pool, well done). Even long-time NDP holdouts in my neighbourhood are lacking their signs. Realistically, this isn’t a big surprise. The NDP has strength in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, but not much at the south end (ie West Vancouver). They probably believe that it serves them better to concentrate their money around Squamish and the Northern reaches of the riding where NDP votes are concentrated and potentially under pressure. In North Vancouver, the NDP is little more than a rump focused around lower Lonsdale. Don’t get me wrong, provincially this is a solid block that makes the BC Liberals work for the riding. Federally, they’re the equivalent of a lone voice in the wilderness (yay hate mail).

(more…)

This morning, I was driving to a restaurant to go get some pizzas for a student assembly (One of the many glorious responsibility that comes with the presidency of the CS student association), and I noticed that the Conservatives, the Liberals and the Greens don’t display their leaders’ pictures on their campaign sign. The NDP and the Bloc do. In fact, the Bloc even has a second generic design showing only the picture of M. Duceppe.

I wonder if this is a councious decision? M. Dion and M.Harper aren’t exactly the most charismatic leaders out there, so putting them on your campaign signs is perhaps not so beneficial. On the other end, M. Duceppe and M. Layton might be perceive to be warmer folks, so putting their pictures beside yours is probably a bigger boost. Or I’m just my reading to much into this?

What about your ridding? Do the candidates show their leaders’ faces?

*** UPDATE ***

Apparently, the NDP also has leader only campaign signs … which are twice as big has the candidate’s sign. Wasn’t Jack Layton running somewhere around Toronto?

I am no military strategist by any stretch of the imagination so maybe I’m off base.

However, this had me perplexed when the Opposition was trying to put firm deadlines on Canada pulling the plug on Afghanistan. Now that the Conservatives are talking about a 2011 withdraw, well…

Telling the Taliban when you’re leaving just doesn’t seem smart. Granted there are other countries there and this isn’t just Canada’s war but some kind of measure of success besides a date thrown out during an election campaign would seem to be a better idea.

In the Fredericton riding which is home to CFB Gagetown, it will be interesting how this plays out at the polling booths. Should we be there or not has been a debate across the country but it is worth noting that since 9/11 there have been no terrorist attacks on North American soil and life for many Afghanis has improved thanks to the Canadian Military.

War sucks but it would be a shame if all the work done by our soldiers (counting nearly 100 who gave their lives) ended up being reversed the moment we pull the plug because of an arbitrary deadline set in the heat of an election.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Just wanted to let everyone know that we’ve launched a new feature — the Discussion Forum. It’s organized along regional lines, just like the rest of the site, and you can also discuss the issues and parties. Check it out:
http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2008/talk