This year is looking to be an interesting year in the Ottawa-Center riding.  The incumbent, Paul Dewar won this riding in 2006 for the NDP, continuing the legacy of Ed Broadbent.  The riding encompasses the Parkdale Market, Downtown core and Glebe areas of Ottawa, all predominantly left-wing areas.  With the growth of the Green party, the Conservatives stand a better chance than ever at breaking the riding from the orange grip of the NDP, but they are not without strong opposition.  Paul Dewar is a local candidate that has won the hearts of many in the riding, and he will be hard to unseat.  The last Liberal Candidate in the riding managed to come within a couple thousand votes, and with the aggressive green policy proposed in the green shift plan, they may stand a chance at taking some soft NDP votes. 

The real story in this election is going to be the leaders, and I’ve seen this first hand on-ground.  Stephane Dion will need to prove his leadership qualities for soft-NDP and Green voters to consider his party, and the effects of Adscam are still being felt throughout the nation, and within the riding.  Jack Layton will need to continue to present himself as the only real alternative to the “big boys”, and keep the pressure on Elisabeth May and the Greens.  Stephen Harper will need to explain his policies, while defending his record.  He will want to highlight his accomplishments, and most importantly his kept promises.  He will need to keep the pressure on Stephane Dion, and ensure that Canadians continue to see him as a rather weak leader.

I took a trip down to the Brian McGarry headquarters on Thursday and met with some of the volunteer staff(and picked up my lawn sign).  They are motivated, and hungry for a win.  The riding will prove to be a long-shot for the conservatives, but there is a lot of room for dialogue, and a lot of great places to campaign.  The team is strong, the office is impressive, and the organizational capacity is growing by the day.  Most will expect the NDP to win this riding with ease, but if the McGarry team continues to be as pumped up as they are, they will make a formidable opponent indeed.

 I will endeavour to keep you up to date of the goings-on within the riding, and will strive to be as objective as possible.  I am a conservative, so do not be surprised if I am a little more in tune with whats happening in the conservative camp.  Enjoy the race!

I stopped by Liberal leader Stephane Dion’s town hall meeting at the University of Victoria on Friday, September 12th.  The event drew a surprising number of people, and Dion’s procession from his bus to the auditorium managed to generate an impressive surge of applause from the mostly student crowd assembled.  I failed to get into the auditorium itself, and it was difficult to make out what was being said on the speakers set up in the lobby to broadcast what was being said inside.

Despite not being able to listen to Dion, the event did give a hint as to the state of the Liberal Party machine in greater Victoria.  All three Liberal candidates in greater Victoria were present, though the bulk of Liberal supporters appeared to be  with Briony Penn’s campaign, the candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands.  Her buttons were in ample supply for interested attendees and pinned to many who were present, and she had the most signs.  Surprisingly, the only Liberal incumbent, Keith Martin, seemed to have the least presence at the event.  Apart from a few vertical placards, his campaign had no indications of existence, no paraphernalia to hand out.

What this event suggests is that the strongest Liberal machine in greater Victoria (or at least the most enthusiastic) is in Saanich-Gulf Islands, where it is evidently hoped that Penn’s environmental and centre-left credentials will allow for the anti-Conservative vote to coalesce around her campaign.  Saanich-Gulf Islands in the last two federal elections has had a strong yet fractured anti-Conservative vote which has allowed Gary Lunn to win. 

It should be noted that the Victoria Conservatives were also present at the Dion event.  About a dozen or so members of Jack McClintock’s campaign (the Conservative candidate in Victoria) were handing out literature and waving signs.  They also managed to place several Conservative lawn signs along the path that Dion walked down on his way to the auditorium.  The local Tories (most of whom appeared to be of university age) also attempted to stand behind Dion during his scrum with reporters while holding up their blue signs, obviously in the hope that they would form the background in any television coverage of the scrum.  The effort was abandonned, however, after the Liberals responded by placing their own bigger signs between Dion and the young Tories.  

As a side note, in the bit of travelling around Victoria I’ve done, I’ve seen more Conservative lawn signs than anyone else’s.  The NDP come in second and the Liberals in third, with no sign of the Greens.

This election is already a week in the bag, but the candidates in Hamilton have been slugging it out for a while. A quick snap shot of the city: Niagara West Glanbrook A rural riding, and since re-distribution, a Tory stronghold. Dean Allison has been nearly omni-present in the riding since his victory in 2004 and shows no signs of stopping. Put this one solidly in the Conservative fold.  Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale Hamilton’s other rural riding and once again, a virtual Tory stronghold. The more urban area’s of Westdale, which is home to McMaster University, should be a toss-up for the NDP and Liberals, but the rural areas of the riding are key, and should reward Tory incumbent David Sweet once again. Hamilton Centre Another stronghold, but this time, and NDP stronghold. Hamilton Centre is perhaps tied with Windsor West as the safest NDP seat in Ontario. Another Christopherson victory in the works. But, this is where the easy predictions stop and the real fights begin…. Hamilton East – Stoney CreekIn this riding, we have Wayne Marston, who eeked out a narrow victory over Tony Valeri in 2006 and is hoping to retain the seat. His only problem is that he is facing off against former Hamilton mayor Larry Di Ianni, who by all accounts has a strong organization behind him and is ready to do battle against the local NDPers. This one will be a nail biter come election night. Hamilton Mountain Another nail-biter. Here we have NDP incumbent Chris Charlton facing a strong challenge from local employment lawyer Tyler Banham. From the first week, it seems clear that Banham has the edge organizationally and is winning the sign war. Once again, a riding to watch and a real battle shaping up.    

Article removed at author’s request.

Terence Young’s campaign office was swamped with volunteers on Saturday September 13 as the campaign ramped up into the next phase.  He has been campaigning ever since he narrowly lost in 2006.  He will likely win this time.  While the CPC may be less successful in Mississauga, Vaughn, Markham, Oakridges and Pickering, it should finally be able to win ridings such as Newmarket-Aurora – and Oakville.  Liberal MP Bonnie Brown may have finally run out of luck.

Halton is another question altogether as Liberal Garth Turner has built up a following and the CPC has parachuted in Lisa Raitt from Toronto.

Il semble qu’après Thomas Mulcair, un conservateur déguisé en néo-démocrate, l’ex-candidate libérale gatinoise Françoise Boivin soit l’un des meilleurs espoirs du NPD au Québec. En allant chercher des “outsiders” de cette manière, à quoi le NPD finira-t-il par ressembler? Parfois, je me pince lorsque j’entends M. Mulcair se porter à la défense des travailleurs et des exclus de notre société. Dire que ce bonhomme-là était ministre au sein du gouvernement Charest… Quelle sera la prochaine prise néo-démocrate? Un ex-adéquiste?

Tout candidat libéral part avec une longueur d’avance dans la circonscription de Hull-Aylmer. Toutefois, j’en entends déjà qui diront “oui, mais vous savez, Alain Charette, du Bloc Québécois, était à seulement 3% du libéral Marcel Proulx en 2006″. Mais à cela je répondrai qu’en 2006, Jacques Léonard, candidat du Bloc dans Outremont, terminait deuxième dans sa circonscription à 6% de Jean Lapierre, ce qui n’a pas empêché le Bloc de perdre beaucoup de terrain lors de l’élection partielle de septembre 2007, principalement au profit du NPD.

Dans les faits, si on observe les chiffres attentivement, on se rend compte que les appuis du Bloc Québécois dans Hull-Aylmer ont plafonné par rapport à l’élection de 2004. Je ne vois pas aux dépens de quel parti le Bloc pourrait faire des gains. Les libéraux? À 30%, j’ai l’impression qu’ils ont atteint leur “plancher”. Les conservateurs? À moins d’un renversement de situation dans l’opinion publique, rien n’est moins certain. Les néo-démocrates? À mon avis, ce serait plutôt le contraire qui pourrait arriver.

Il n’en demeure pas moins que Raphaël Déry, du Bloc Québécois, est sans doute le rival le plus sérieux de Marcel Proulx. Hull-Aylmer ressemble davantage au West Island qu’aux régions francophones du Québec, au sens où les conservateurs ne peuvent espérer l’emporter. Leur meilleur résultat remonte à 1984, lorsqu’une vague bleue s’était abattue sur le Québec, et même à cette époque, le candidat libéral l’avait emporté avec 1500 voix d’avance. Quant au NPD, Pierre Ducasse permettra sans doute au parti d’y faire bonne figure, mais le précédent candidat vedette, Pierre Laliberté, n’avait obtenu que 15,5% des voix en 2006.

Tout ça me fait penser à certaines circonscriptions montréalaises libérales qui bordent les comtés bloquistes: théoriquement prenables, mais en pratique, c’est une autre paire de manches. Dans un prochain texte, je parlerai davantage des candidats et des enjeux locaux.

For my first DemocraticSpace blog post I figured I would re-post a series I did on my own blog when the election was called last Sunday. This is a three part series dealing with all 14 Saskatchewan ridings. I will give the candidates, the 2006 results, analysis of each riding, and a prediction of the outcome on October 14th. I have updated this version slight as new candidates have been nominated since. I have tried to be as non-partisan and pragmatic as possible. I welcome your feedback/comments/constructive criticisms.

Today I will focus on the 4 Saskatoon area ridings. So let the games begin!:

BLACKSTRAP
Incumbent: Lynne Yelich (CON)
Last Election: 48.0/30.6/16.9/3.3
2008 Candidates:
CON – Lynne Yelich
NDP – Patti Gieni
LIB – Deb Ehmann
Analysis: One of 4 Saskatoon ridings that is split between 1/2 city and 1/2 rural areas. Blackstrap represented the highest vote total of any NDP candidate in 2006, but still put them 17% back of the Conservative incumbent.
Prediction: Unless the Conservatives do something to completely alienate their core rural support Yelich will take this one again. However, expect to see the overall lead diminished somewhat. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.
 
SASKATOON-HUMBOLDT
Incumbent: Brad Trost (CON)
Last Election: 49.1/29.5/16.9/3.7
2008 Candidates:
CON – Brad Trost
NDP – Scott Ruston
LIB – Karen Parhar
Analysis: One of 4 Saskatoon ridings that is split between 1/2 city and 1/2 rural areas. Humboldt was easily carried by Trost in 2006. A large swath of the rural portion of the riding extends into the Sask bible belt, Trost has done well to play up the pro-life side of his platform over the past couple of years. NDP candidate Scott Ruston has been campaigning in the riding since Winter 2007 but faces an uphill climb against the rural Conservative and the Northeast section of Saskatoon that is characterized by high home prices and a trend towards the Conservatives (re: Sask Party) in the last provincial election. The Liberals are also ran’s in this riding and the lack of a “name” candidate to suggests they will coast to their 10-15% of the vote without mounting much of a challenge.
Prediction: Unless the Conservatives do something to completely alienate their core rural support Trost will take this one again. However, expect to see the overall lead diminished somewhat. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.
 
SASKATOON-ROSETOWN-BIGGAR
Incumbent: Carol Skelton (CON)
Last Election: 45.5/39.0/12.1/2.5
2008 Candidates:
CON – Kelly Block
NDP – Nettie Wiebe
LIB – Roy Bluehorn
Analysis:One of 4 Saskatoon ridings that is split between 1/2 city and 1/2 rural areas. This riding represents the best chance for an NDP pick-up in 2008 with Nettie Wiebe re-upping and looking to overcome a 1,900 vote difference. Incumbent Carol Skelton is not running again and Kelly Block will carry the Conservative banner into the election. The nomination of Kelly Block was probably the worst case scenario for the NDP as her credentials and centrist policies will play well to the riding, much like Carol Skelton who took pains to distance herself from the Conservative brand during her time as MP. However, without an incumbent Nettie Wiebe’s presence in the riding over the past 3 years should pay dividends. The Liberals will once again play spoiler in a riding that they have not mounted a serious campaign in for a few election cycles. It will be up to Nettie and her team to woo the 10-15% Liberal voting base in order to overcome the vote deficient.
Prediction: Despite her impressive resume and cross-party support, Kelly Block is a wildcard in this race. The NDP will have to work hard especially to pull out a good portion of the city vote, while the Conservatives cannot be seen resting on their strong rural vote. Seat TO CLOSE TO CALL.
 
SASKATOON-WANUSKEWIN
Incumbent: Maurice Vellcott (CON)
Last Election: 49.4/22.1/24.1/3.6
2008 Candidates:
CON – Maurice Vellcott
NDP – Clint Davidson
LIB – Patricia Zipchen
Analysis:One of 4 Saskatoon ridings that is split between 60% city and 40% rural areas. 2006 likely represents a high water mark for Maurice Vellcott and the Conservatives in this riding. However, as has happened in the past two elections the NDP and Liberals are likely to split the 50-55% of the non-Conservative vote in the riding. In 2006 Wanuskewin was the targeted riding by the Liberals; however, Axworthy was unable to maintain the large gains made in the 2004 election and his departure leaves a large hole for the Liberals in the riding. The NDP is well poised to vault into 2nd place in the riding both due to lack of a “name” Liberal candidate and those unhappy with the Conservatives.
Prediction: Vellcott will have to do or say something extremely stupid to lose this seat, despite his unfortunate comments in the national media over the past 2.5 years. Seat to CONSERVATIVES.

Jack Layton was in town today to support his candidate, Françoise Boivin.  Mme Boivin was the Liberal MP for Gatineau from 2004 to 2006 before being defeated by Richard Nadeau of the Bloc Québécois.  She later jump on the NDP band wagon when the Liberals refuse to allow her to run again in this election.  M. Layton’s speech focus on promoting woman equality in Canada.

The NDP seems to think she has a good shot at being elected and is apparently ready to commit some resources on her campaign.  For my take on Françoise Boivin and her chances in Gatineau look at “Go Françoise!!!”

On the weekends, when I am not overwhelmed with school work, I work as a delivery driver. Yesterday, driving around many different parts of Toronto and Cambridge, I couldn’t help but notice that in most ridings, the conservatives were the only party with lawn signs. I understand they had a leg up in predicting the election timing, and were able to start production a little early, but did the Liberals not see this election coming? I’ve barely seen any liberal signs (although maybe this is the first primer on their significant drop in the polls). Even on my personal front, I ordered my NDP sign almost a week ago and have yet to receive it.

Most surprising might have been the NDP signs that advertised the “team of Jack Layton” and not the actual riding candidate. Its an interesting strategy considering the stark shift in this election campaign’s spotlight away from party platforms towards the individual leader’s capabilities. This may be one election where Jack Layton actually seems more capable than his leadership counterparts.

Also, has anyone else had fun playing with the policy slot machine on www.notaleader.ca? It is absolutely hilarious. The conservatives have outdone themselves once again.

Looking around my part of Davenport, you would barely know there is an election taking place.  We are a small, non-traditional family living nearer the point the of this fang shaped riding. We have seen nothing resembling a flyer from any candidate. There are a few signs for the Liberal incumbent, Mario Silva, on the main streets near here, but few off the beaten track. Those few resemble nothing more than For Sale signs – not the appearance of a vital election.

The results last time around were Silva (L) 52%, Perks (NDP) 33%, Rodrigues (C) 10%. As this is a traditionally Liberal riding, none of this came as a huge surprise. This time around, we see a new NDP candidate, Peter Ferreira, with Theresa Rodrigues running again for the Conservatives.  Wayne Scott is the Green Candidate.

It is really disheartening to see so little web presence for any of the candidates other than Mario Silva.  We are therefore dependent on media coverage to get more information, and beyond the national leadership, we see very little targeted to our area.

I am going to make an effort to track down further information, and get feet on the ground here in Davenport to get a better feel for what’s going on in various areas nearby. With any luck, the other campaigns will get moving soon, and we can actually have a discussion.

The 2008 campaign in Ottawa-Orleans is off to a  slow start. This is a traditional Liberal riding taken by Conservative Royal Gallipeau in 2006. If Harper is to strengthen his minority or secure a majority, he needs to hang on to this and other ridings the Conservatives  took from the Liberals in the last election. Conversely, if the Liberals are to block a Conservative majority they need to win back this and similar ridings.

Royal Gallipeau is hoping to secure back-to-back wins for the Cons. Marc Godbout, the Liberal candidate, is hoping to regain the riding he held for a couple of years prior to Gallipeau’s upset. His campaign is complicated by infighting among local Liberals over the past three years.

The riding was represented for many years by Liberal Eugene Bellemare. Some Liberals loyal to the Bellemare legacy feel that Godbout stole the nomination in 2005 by packing the meeting with a new group of “instant” Liberals. The Liberal nomination for the current election was hotly contested with several prominent Liberals running against Godbout, including Eugene Bellemare’s son, Michel Bellemare, currently a member of Ottawa City Council. But the anti-Godbout vote was split among several candidates, allowing Godbout to regain the nomination. The question is: will the various Liberal factions unite behind Godbout? If they do, then Godbout should have an excellent chance to regain the riding he once held. If not, Gallipeau may hold on.

There are other wild cards. Former NDP candidate Mark Leahy and Green Party candidate Dan Biocchi have now joined forces with the Liberals. Leahy, who is young and charismatic, took a substantial number of votes last time, increasing the traditional NDP share significantly. This worked in Gallipeau’s favour. The reason Marc Godbout lost was that the NDP ran an extremely strong candidate in Marc Leahy (15% of the vote). Will the disaffected Liberals who thought the Libs should be punished for the sponsorship scandal return to the Liberal fold this time?

Welcome to a Riding Blog for Scarborough Guildwood -

The district of Scarborough – Guildwood lies nestled on the far eastern boundary line of Toronto. The riding is bordered by lame Ontario to the South, the Bellamy Ravine to the East, Bellamy Road to the west and the Highway 401 to the North. The riding was once part of a geographically larger riding known as Scarborough East which consisted of the eastern part of Scarborough and the Western part of Pickering. The riding however was split into Pickering-Scarborough  East and Scarborough – Guildwood.

The Riding primarily consists of Lower-Middle Class households. A tour of the area will bring to eye largely sections of Apartment buildings, groups of public housing, parks and shopping malls. The main landmarks of the riding are the University of Toronto Scarborough Campus, the Morningside Crossing (formerly known as Morningside Mall), Cedarbrae Mall. The riding has a wide ethnic mixture of individuals drawing people together from all backgrounds in a common riding.

On the surface one may look at the ridings past elections and see the results as follows –

2006
Liberal – John McKay 21,875
Conservative – Pauline Browes 11,790

2005
Liberal – John McKay – 20,950
Conservative – Tom Varesh 8,277

2000
Liberal – John McCay – 24, 019
Conservative – Paul Calandra 7, 559

The fact is the last time the area was represented by an individual who was not a Liberal was 1988, a period in which the P.C. party won the riding however rarely by a margin of more than a few thousand (the high point being when they won in 1984 by thirteen thousand, and the low being approximately 500).

The general reader might be lead to believe that the riding is strongly biased towards the Liberal party, and this may be so. However, the truth of the matter is that John Mckay is a mediocre parliamentarian, and commits a sub-par amount of effort to constituency work to the riding.

One may ask, if these facts are true, why would the Liberal party be so strong in the area? The fact of the matter is that the area does have a much deeper meaning to it than many are aware. It illustrates the Conservative Parties inability to bring individuals under the larger tent of their parties influence who are not already within their core target group. In other words, if you look at the area and the people in the area you will find Hindu Temples, Mosques, and a Gurdwara all of which have always been strongly Liberal voting groups.

The Conservative Party is very good at finding groups are like them and showing the groups how they are alike and creating an “othering” influence in which they show how they represent that particular group in opposition to the others. As compared the Liberal party who has always been able to show individuals how they bring together many different backgrounds and cultures into a common culture which can be known as “Canadian” . In other words the Liberal Party bridges gaps between peoples, while the Conservative Party simply bonds those already with them.

Throughout this blog I intend on looking at the different issues which pop up in the context of this specific riding. Issues such as health care, federal funding for public transit, the environment as well as certain key areas of Foreign policy will be primarily discussed here. On the other hand, issues such as softwood lumber, wheat, agricultural subsides, and such will not receive as much attention as they have relatively loq bearing on the decision made at the ballot box by the individuals in this riding.

An old issue that seems to come up every election in Outaouais is the repartition of federal government jobs between Ottawa and Gatineau. In 1984, the government adopted a policy stating that 25% of federal jobs should be located in Gatineau and 75% should be in Ottawa. To the best of my knowledge, that target has never been met. The current ratio is 21-79.

Every election, at any level, politicians start talking about how they will fix the problem and how their opponents have been sitting on their hands for decades. No one seems to stop and actually ask why that policy is such a good thing in the first place.

I personally find this debate somewhat annoying: as a tax payer, I expect my government to try to deliver the best services and the lowest possible cost. When it comes to selecting a location for new offices, I would hope that the driving factor in the decision would be “value for money” … not an arbitrary quest for regional justice.

As a Libertarian, I’m especially annoyed when I see a Conservative calling for more federal jobs on the Quebec side (Paul Fréchette, CPC, Hull-Aylmer) :

 Parmi ses priorités, il y a l’attribution de 25 % des emplois fédéraux de la capitale en Outaouais. « Nous autres ce que les libéraux ont promis pendant 30 ans, puis qu’ils n’ont jamais fait, nous autres, on va le réaliser. C’est en voie de réalisation actuellement », dit-il.

It’s also funny when I see the Bloc running on that issue … because if they had their way, the ratio would probably be closer to 0-100. The Liberals don’t really have a lot of credibility on the issue either, considering that Pontiac, Hull-Aylmer and Gatineau had been Liberal for more than a decade before the 2004 election.

The strange thing is that most voters don’t seem to care that much about this. I know a lot of Ottawa residents who work in Gatineau and Gatineau residents who work in Ottawa. The Ottawa-Gatineau population is fairly mobile. I don’t think the average voter cares that much on which side of the Ottawa river he earns a living … as long as the pay check ends up at the right address.

Well the election is off to quiet start here in Calgary. Families are just getting back from summer vacation and the start of school. The riding has always been a Conservative / Reform safe seat. Jason Kenney will more than likely hang on to this riding. In 2006 he was able to capture 75% of the vote.

The NDP and Green party have yet to announce who their candidates are yet. Liberal Brad Carroll has his work cut out for him. Have yet to see any of his signs out yet.

Stéphane Dion “Green Shift” policy is not popular here. Albertans are viewing it as a tax transfer from Alberta to Eastern Canada.  In a city where most of the jobs are Oil related, it looks like all the seats will remain in conservative hands.

As Charlottetown NDP candidate Brian Pollard, a filmmaker and taxi driver, notes in this press release, it took less than a week into the campaign for Liberal MP Shawn Murphy to distance himself from the Liberals’ controversial carbon tax plan:

  “There’s no doubt in my mind that Shawn’s a decent and smart man, and that’s why I’m not suprised to hear him favour the NDP’s position over his own party’s,” Pollard said. “The Green Shift is the worst combination of giving corporations the right to pay to pollute, while imposing large burdens on the poorest people who will be the first to suffer under the imposition of such things as huge increases in the cost heating oil and foodstuffs”.

Predictably, on PEI, where most homes are oil-heated and people’s pocketbooks are already feeling strained, the Liberal environmental plan has been a very hard sell for its Liberal incumbent MPs.

Indeed, it was speculated, justifiably so, that one-time Egmont Liberal hopeful Robert Morrissey withdrew from the race because he know the Liberal plan would be an electoral millstone around his neck.

As reported by the Guardian – which covers the Island like the dew – Murphy faced hard questions about the carbon tax at a recent public meeting. He argued that the Liberal plan would not hurt low-income earners, but also said not too worry, he doesn’t imagine it would be quickly implemented:

“This winter, I don’t think you’re going to see the green shift even if the Liberals got elected,” Murphy responded. “There’s no question the lower your income, the more you benefit from green shift.”

So I guess the Liberals are throwing aside the argument that the NDP’s cap and trade climate plan is bad because it can’t be implemented quickly enough.

But Murphy went further, according to the Guardian:

Murphy said he will not single out big oil but he said he does believe there needs to be more than green shift. He said he personally wants to see a cap-and-trade system put in place and he hopes it is contained in the Liberal platform, which will be released later in the campaign.

Finally, Murphy indicated that he would not be in favour of doing anything to stop the environmental destruction of the Athabasca Tar Sands, which the NDP rightly pointed out its health and environmental consequences earlier this week:

“You may not be satisfied with that particular answer but if you want me to say I’m going to shut down the tarsands, the answer is ‘no, I’m not going to’,” said Murphy. “If you want me turn into anti-tarsands, I’m not going to do it.”

If a Liberal MP indicates the NDP environmental plan is better than his party’s and refuses to slow down the unsustainable growth of Canada’s biggest environmental shame, environmentalists might have to reconsider theur support for M. Dion and his party.

Funny, I thought Wayne Easter would have been the first Island Liberal to throw the Green Shift under the bus!

This may be one of the dullest campaigns in all of Canada come election day. Four candidates are vying for the seat so far.

One of which (the Liberal candidate, Marjory Loveys) was just nominated on Wednesday. Marjory, a life-time party hack, ottawa resident, and oil painter, is not what you would call “a perfect fit” for Leeds-Grenville. Look for Marjory to capture anywhere around 25% on election day. This is if they start campaigning early next week. (no lit, no signs, no office, weak base)

Gord Brown will operate a modest but well oiled campaign machine. Hes comfortable with his chances of winning but has done little for the riding since his election in 2004. Look to Gord Brown to get around 55%, unless the federal party slips up big during the campaign.

Steve Armstrong will try again, for the fourth time in six years, to win Leeds-Grenville. He gets alot of support (votes and finances) during the campaign from “certain voters”. He is the president of the local labour council, and works at Invista (dupont). He’ll open his office on Wednesday, although he has a small amount of signs out (compared to the Greens and Conservatives) and no lit (that I’m aware of). If he gets moving before the end of the next week look to him to get 10%, if not it may drop to as low as 7-8%.

Jeanie Warnock will run again for the Greens after representing the party in the last provincial election. She was able to place third, ahead of the NDP, with 7.2%. The Greens already have a strong presence in the riding. They had signs out before anybody else. However, they aren’t guaranteed to retain they’re third place spot. They should be opening they’re office sometime this week (interesting to note that the conservative and Green offices are just a few doors apart.) Look to the Greens to capture 10% if they remain at they’re current pace.

Yesterday was the first anniversary of the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

This Declaration was passed overwhelmingly by the UN General Assembly. But four settler states with dismal records regarding their indigenous populations voted against it: the United States, Australia, New Zealand–and Canada.

Thank you for that, Stephen Harper. The frankly racist decision by your government to oppose this Declaration has tarnished our international image, insulted First Nations and Inuit, and shamed us all.

Here is yet another election issue that needs to be foregrounded by the other parties. Harper’s “apology” to Native people was sheer hypocrisy. Your empty words, sir, cannot conceal the actions of your government–this disgraceful UN vote, the destruction of the Kelowna Accord, even the vetoing of a primary school for Aboriginal kids by a Minister whose comments about Aboriginal people simply reek of contempt.

Out of respect, and to atone for being a day late with this, I will now turn the floor over to Les Malezer, a descendant of the Gubbi Gubbi and Butchulla peoples of the region of the Mary River and Fraser Island on the eastern coast of Australia, and the former Chairperson of the Global Indigenous Peoples Caucus on the Declaration, who issued this anniversary statement yesterday:

(more…)

Here’s a funny story from Gatineau. Last Sunday, Françoise Boivin, the NDP candidate, got a nice e-mail from Stéphane Dion thanking her for her support and encouraging her to do everything she can do defeat the Tories. Apparently, Mme Boivin was still on the Liberals contributor list.

Her political path is an interesting and sinuous one. In 2004, she was elected in Gatineau as a Liberal. Near the end of the 2006 campaign, she urged federalist voters angry at the Liberals to vote for the Conservatives instead of the Bloc. That didn’t really help her and she was defeated by the Bloc Québécois candidate, Richard Nadeau. She did try to get the Liberal nomination for this election, but apparently Stéphane Dion’s Quebec lieutenant, senator Céline Hervieux-Payette, would have none of it.

So a few mounts ago, she decided to jump ship and join the NDP.

This could be a fun race to watch because there is a lot of wild cards in the deck. The Bloc last time won because of unhappy federalist voters; they could be returning into the Liberal fold this time.

Also, people didn’t vote against Françoise Boivin as much as they voted against the Liberal Party. And that nomination business was pretty ugly, so she might get some sympathy vote on that.

And let’s not count the Conservatives out either. Lawrence Cannon, my local Conservative MP, has been in the news a lot for the past 2 years and he is generally well regarded in Gatineau. This could help boost the scores of other Conservative candidates in the region.

I find the Federal Conservative commercial saying Stéphane Dion is going to take away the the oh so generous 1200 dollars a year child care benefit for children misleading and offensive.

What Harper does not say in his attack adds:

1. The child care benefit is only good if you have children under six years old.

2. It only equals 100 a month which really doesn’t amount to much and that’s if you have a child under six.

3. Harper canceled 125,000 child care spaces and broke promises for creating 25,000 new spaces.

4. The Harper attack adds are misinformation because the Liberals are keeping the cheques. Stéphane Dion has repeatedly said that he will not eliminate the $1,200 child care benefit.

My younger sister is a single mom who has to support herself and three small children who are ages seven to ten. Harper’s child care benefit is absolutely no good to her and offers no relief to her and her children.

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