IMAGE BY RUB
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NEWFOUNDLAND
PRINCE EDWARD ISL.
NOVA SCOTIA
NEW BRUNSWICK
NATIONAL
ONTARIO
QUEBEC
BRITISH COLUMBIA
ALBERTA
MANITOBA
SASKATCHEWAN
NW TERRITORIES
NUNAVUT
YUKON
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
2005-06 ELECTION FORECAST
Welcome to the democraticSPACE.com election forecast model. This model proved quite accurate for the 2004 Election; the model predicted that the Liberals would win 131 seats (they actually won 135), 102 seats for the Conservatives (they won 99), 19 seats for the NDP (they won 19), and 56 seats for the Bloc Quebecois (they won 54). The model has 4 steps: 1) for each riding, it adjusts the level of support for each party proportionally to the provincial change, 2) it then adjusts each riding to account for variations between regions within provinces, 3) it then accounts for concentrations of party support within these sub-regions and finally 4) it makes an adjustment to account for candidates. A tracking of the seat projections for the past few months plus the latest riding-by-riding forecasts are given for each province (click the flags below).
CLICK HERE FOR PREDICTIONS

 

 

 

 

 

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