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2005-06
ELECTION FORECAST
Welcome
to the democraticSPACE.com election forecast model. This model proved quite
accurate for the 2004 Election; the model predicted that the Liberals would
win 131 seats (they actually won 135), 102 seats for the Conservatives (they
won 99), 19 seats for the NDP (they won 19), and 56 seats for the Bloc Quebecois
(they won 54). The model has 4 steps: 1) for each riding, it adjusts the level
of support for each party proportionally to the provincial change, 2) it then
adjusts each riding to account for variations between regions within provinces,
3) it then accounts for concentrations of party support within these sub-regions
and finally 4) it makes an adjustment to account for candidates. A tracking
of the seat projections for the past few months plus the latest riding-by-riding
forecasts are given for each province (click the flags below).
[146
kb PDF]
